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The Bitcoin market is bracing for a seismic shift as the reality of its scarcity becomes ever more apparent. Recent data has illuminated a startling fact: a whopping 88% of Bitcoin's total supply has not budged in at least three months. This trend of holding, colloquially known as "HODLing," showcases the unwavering belief of long-term investors in the intrinsic value of this pioneering cryptocurrency.
A Glassnode chart illustrating Bitcoin HODL Waves reveals layers of investor behavior over time, with the colors representing different periods that Bitcoins have been held. The predominance of cooler hues confirms that the majority of Bitcoin has not been traded or sold for extended periods, reinforcing the scarcity narrative.
As the market comes to terms with the 12% of Bitcoin actively circulating, the scarcity principle suggests an inevitable uptick in value. Economics 101 dictates that as a commodity becomes rarer, its demand-price relationship experiences pressure. With only a sliver of the supply left for potential buyers, the competition to acquire Bitcoin is poised to intensify.
Arman ShirinyanThe second chart, a snapshot of Bitcoin's price action, indicates an upward trajectory, with the price cradled by increasing moving averages — a bullish indicator for market analysts. This chart is a testament to the growing momentum as Bitcoin ascends within its bullish channel, suggesting that the market is responding to the scarcity.
The narrative is clear: Bitcoin is becoming a rare asset. As more of the supply becomes illiquid, those looking to purchase Bitcoin may face stiff competition, driving prices higher. The market has spoken; it is not just about who will buy Bitcoin but who can afford to buy it.
Yuri Molchan
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin