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Currently trading near $2.23, XRP was rejected just below the mid-band line on the weekly time frame, which sits around $2.39. This level often acts as a dividing line between bullish and bearish sentiment, and when price stays below it, pressure tends to build to the downside.
If the situation does not change soon, the retest of the lower Bollinger Band becomes more likely. Considering that this level is now located near $1.78, XRP comes with a risk of a drop of roughly 20% from the current price point.
Earlier this month, XRP price bounced from that same $1.78 area, suggesting strong support. But the failure to reclaim the mid-band now raises the risk that support will need to be tested again - and whether it will sustain this time is not set in stone.
Volume has also declined compared to recent weeks, which does not help the bullish case. Without stronger buying interest, XRP may continue to drift lower. Meanwhile, the 20-week moving average is flattening, confirming the lack of a clear trend.
So far, support around $2.20 is holding, but only just. If that level gives way, the path toward $1.90 and potentially $1.78 becomes much more likely.
In short, XRP is stuck below a key technical milestone, and that leaves the market in a defensive stance. A move above the mid-Bollinger Band could shift the outlook - but until that happens, downside pressure is more likely to dominate.
Whether bulls can reclaim momentum, or if the lower band comes back into play - that is the scenario to watch in the coming weeks.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin