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Bitcoin Weekly Forecast and Ripple Possible Scenarios: Price Analysis, Oct. 8, 2018

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  • Vaido Veek
    📈 Price Predictions

    Bitcoin weekly forecast and Ripple possible scenarios

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast and Ripple Possible Scenarios: Price Analysis, Oct. 8, 2018
Cover image via u.today

Disclaimer: The opinion expressed here is not investment advice – it is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of U.Today. Every investment and all trading involves risk, so you should always perform your own research prior to making decisions. We do not recommend investing money you cannot afford to lose.

Contents

*** Please note the analysis below is not investment advice. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of U.Today. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin weekly forecast

image

Let's start with a weekly time frame. In the picture above, we have a curved support line which reflects the price over a period of time. It starts this February, and now we have touched it multiple times over the last weeks. Previously, when the price was approaching the trendline, it was rejected quickly and had to move sharply downwards and when the price has touched the curved support line after that, it has bounced upwards pretty quickly. But currently, we are waiting for the momentum with the volume. This week we will definitely see a bigger movement because the price is approaching the crossing area and is ready to make a breakout in either direction. In order to find out which direction is more favorable, we need to examine shorter time frames, too. However, during the last three weeks, the price has bounced upwards from the round number of $6,500 which works as a support. Note that there are more bullish signs on shorter time frames.

image

Let's take a look at a four-hour chart. As you might have already noticed, we managed to push through the trendline which was the last week major goal. Over the weekend, as usual, the price moved sideways because the weekends are historically with a super-low volume. Luckily, this sideways kick brought an important price action movement. On Friday, Bitcoin broke above the trendline and over the weekend made a retest and got a bounce exactly from the trendline which previously was a resistance and now becomes a support.

To get a move upwards, we have to break above the orange line, which is just above the current price. This level has worked multiple times as a resistance and if this level breaks, it will be the first sign of the bullishness. That would be a small step due to Bitcoin’s super-strong resistance and the major down-trendline crossing area position above the orange line. Crossing area is very hard to crack and we need a massive volume to accomplish that. If Bitcoin moves upwards, we can get the power to guide us through $6,767 and through the major down-trendline. Thus, the first major targets would be around $7,000 and $7,300.

In the four-hour chart, the Bitcoin price trades above the all-important EMA's which is a good sign if we want to see a movement upward. However, in the daily chart, the price is currently below the 50 EMA. It works as a resistance and matches with the orange line on the four-hour chart. The orange line is the first short-term level for bullish BTC.

Remember, the breakout can occur in either direction: above the major down-trendline or below the curve support. The major downwards confirmation is a daily close below the curve support and the round number of $6,500. The close will give us several “break below's”:

  • Break below the curve support;
  • Break below the round number;
  • Break below the EMA's;
  • Break below the minor up-trendlines.

Summary:

Weekly timeframe analysis indicates that the price starts to ‘think’ differently — three weeks around the major trendline without any dump are an indication.

The four-hour chart shows bullish signs such as trendline breakout and retest, but strong support levels at $6,460 and $6,500 have held the price nicely.

The correction to $6,460–$6,500 is possible; however, it’s not favorable to witness candle close below these levels. Specifically, it applies to a daily candle close because then the bullish momentum would be gone and the possibility that the bears start to control the market would be high.

RIPPLE (XRP/USD) Possible Scenarios

Since Sept. 22, the Ripple price has had consolidation between $0.45 and $0.6. Remember, last week we discovered  “Cypher” harmonic pattern and now it has completed. Currently, it got a bounce exactly from the ‘complete area’ at $0.475.

image

The price is again above the short-term counter trendline which is a good sign if the market stays stable. To get a full confirmation, we have to break the round number of $0.5 which works as a resistance. In this area, there is also an old support level which now transfers into the resistance level. So, the road to the higher prices is almost free. The only stop could be on the May’s low level at $0.544. This scenario could be very powerful if Bitcoin makes a breakout upward from the major down-trendline. In this case, the target is even higher and we can easily reach it into the June low level at $0.7.

Bearish confirmation would be a candle close below the previous low at $0.47 (below the short-term counter trendline). The first support would be the grey area, which was the support on Sept. 25, and after its crack, the major support would be at $0.4.

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About the author

Vaido Veek hopes to become a leading voice in technical analysis by educating people about how the perfect TA  should look like. He has over 5 years of charting experience and loves to solve the patterns that   they show us. His slogan is "keep it simple"!

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Why China Fever on Bitcoin is Already Dropping After 1 Month of Blockchain Optimism

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    The so-called “China fever” on crypto like bitcoin has noticeably declined since President Xi’s speech on October 28.

Why China Fever on Bitcoin is Already Dropping After 1 Month of Blockchain Optimism
Cover image via 123rf.com
Contents

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his support for blockchain technology on October 28, the so-called “China fever” on crypto like bitcoin has noticeably declined.

The price of bitcoin fell from around $10,600 to $8,500 and cryptocurrencies that are known have Chinese development teams such as NEO, Ontology, and TRON have slightly increased over the past three weeks, but not enough to be described as a speculative mania.

Why demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not on the rise

Following the newly established vision of the Chinese government to push the development of blockchain technology, expectations for strengthened momentum of the cryptocurrency market rapidly increased.

Initially, such expectations combined preceded an abrupt overnight increase in the price of bitcoin to above a key “psychological level” at $10,000, but the price fell back to “pre-Xi” levels in a relatively short period.

Global markets analyst Alex Krüger said:
“Have mainland China investors increased their demand for bitcoin? BTC volumes quickly dropped back to pre Xi news levels; online searches in China are back down to pre Xi news levels; website traffic for exchanges catering to China barely changed since the news.

The ‘Chinese tokens,’ NEO, ONT and TRX, have all done well since the aftermath of the news, while VET (a supply chain oriented blockchain) has been cruising on China news. Don't think though this is a sign of a ‘speculative fever’ of any kind.”

The analyst emphasized that prior to the statement of President Xi on the focus of China to facilitate the development and implementation of blockchain technology, the penetration of cryptocurrencies in the region was already high.

Also, most mainland Chinese cryptocurrency investors are said to have been trading digital assets through overseas markets like Hong Kong, purchasing stablecoins like Tether with the Hong Kong dollar.

Hence, it is possible that the public already anticipated the government of China to eventually reiterate its plans to encourage blockchain development with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) consistently stating that its plans for a state-operated digital currency is in the works.

“It is without doubt that with the announcement of Libra, governments, regulators and central banks around the world have had to expedite their plans and approach to digital assets,” Dave Chapman, BC Technology Group executive director, said.

Is this the end of the Xi-effect?

Some technical analysts have suggested that the upside movement of bitcoin to $10,600 in late October may have not been primarily fueled by the optimism around China’s blockchain development initiative, and that a cascade of short liquidations amidst a build up of sell pressure caused the rally.

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About the author

Joseph Young is an analyst based in South Korea that has been covering finance, fintech, and cryptocurrency since 2013. He has worked with various recognized publications in both the finance and cryptocurrency industries.

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