This article is about Bitcoin price prediction 2018 and Bitcoin price prediction 2019. Results of 2018 for Bitcoin show that the cryptocurrency tumbled almost 75% from the high price of $18 000 to the low price of $3 790 as of December 27, 2018.
The following monthly Bitcoin chart is indicative of the continuous and very strong selling pressure in 2018, making a Bitcoin forecast today a very hard task. We will, nonetheless, make a Bitcoin price prediction for 2019 and beyond, based on some opinions of experts and on technical analysis. After a top formed in early January 2018, the price of Bitcoin followed only one trend — a very strong downtrend for the rest of 2018. Is there a bottom, however, formed in December 2018 near the price level of $3 200?
From the above chart it is not unreasonable to argue that the immense price acceleration of Bitcoin in late 2017 and the collapse of its price in 2018 is what they call in financial textbooks a bubble. Was it only speculation and momentum trading that moved the price so high and was it the realization that this price of about $20 000 was unjustified based on the fundamental key drivers of Bitcoin that made 2018 one of the toughest years for the cryptocurrency market?
Bitcoin price prediction 2018
Bitcoin predictions are mostly an opinion, although supported by some arguments and even technical analysis may make a Bitcoin forecast attempt at least to have some solid arguments to back it up and have some validity. In our previous article about Bitcoin projections for the end of 2018, we wrote the following:
“If the support above $4 000 will hold for several days, our basic scenario is for a Bitcoin price of about $4 700 for the remaining days of December 2018. This is based on the trading concept of reversion to the mean, as volatility has expanded significantly as of mid-November 2018. If high volatility is to be followed by low volatility, then a price correction to higher levels has enough probability to occur.”
Bitcoin price prediction 2019
In 2018, both bulls and bears had trouble predicting the Bitcoin price due to the increased volatility experienced all year long, which made the task almost an impossible mission. For 2018, we read forecasts about Bitcoin at $50 000, $100 000 on the optimistic side, and at $3 000, $6 000 and almost to zero from the well-known Economist Nouriel Roubini.
Will 2019 see a rise or a steeper selloff for the price of Bitcoin? What do the experts forecast?
Bitcoin price forecast 2019
What is the Bitcoin outlook for 2019? Some of the experts in the cryptocurrency market have talked about the future of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and have also provided a range for Bitcoin’s price forecast in the coming year. Will this bear market and intense selloff end in 2019? Many investors, both individuals and professionals, have lost a lot of money if they picked the long-only side, buying the cryptocurrency as it was moving to lower price levels, perhaps trying to catch a falling knife and the real bottom of the price.
Here are some of the forecasts experts have made for Bitcoin in 2019:
“Some potential institutional candidates are Marco funds CTAs, multi-strategy funds and alternative strategies have about $600 billion AuM. Commodity assets alone that are held by hedge funds were $300 billion as at 2017. It makes up for 10% of the AuM. BTC may fall into this bucket. Macro funds are potential institutional candidates. However, the current circumstances are bleak.” — Boris Hristov.
According to Boris Hristov, who is a Bitcoin and technology researcher, one catalyst for the price to find a potential bottom and move higher in 2019 will be the scenario of large institutional investors entering the market. But this scenario may occur in the future only if volatility in the market will be less extreme than current market conditions.
“If you’re short we think you should be very careful and reducing your short exposure. I think if you’re looking to be long this is where you start adding here to your long exposure,” said Robert Sluymer from Fundstrat. In other words, a potential bottom for Bitcoin is near and a trend change form downward to upward is possible at these low levels of about $3900, but as always confirmation of this trend change is required.
A very optimistic Bitcoin price prediction is made by John McAfee, Bitcoin supporter and founder of the popular McAfee antivirus software, predicting that the Bitcoin price will hit $1 million by 2020.
Bitcoin price prediction 2020
Here are some Bitcoin price predictions for 2020:
Sam Doctor, Quantamental Strategist at Fundstrat Global Advisors:
“We expect the mining economy to grow over the next several years, and project a BTC price of $36 000 by year end 2019 based on the historical average 1.8x P/BE multiple.”
“Bitcoin’s price can be anywhere in 5 years, from $10 000 to $100 000. An exact prediction is hard to provide because there are numerous fundamentals that are likely to change between now and [then]. Digital currencies and assets are the future of transactions and value storage, and Bitcoin is leading this revolution. But this doesn’t make it easy to guarantee a specific price tag five years down the road,” says Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull Capital.
“I think BTC could potentially hit bigger figures by the year 2020. But for the next year or two, it’ll still be hovering just under the $10 000 mark. But then again, the end of 2019 is essentially millennia away,” mentions Fred Schebesta, Co-Founder and CEO of Finder.
“Your guess is as good as mine. My price prediction for Bitcoin in 2020 is $30 000,” professes Craig Russo, Co-founder of sludgefeed.com.
“In 2020, my BTC estimate is $75 000, which is roughly 10x today’s price, and a total market cap of $1.3 trillion,” mentions Brandon Quittem, Cryptocurrency Analyst & Writer.
Bitcoin price prediction 2025
“I’m unable to guess as there are so many factors are involved that is impossible to say. I’d say that lack of proper security is currently the biggest obstacle for mass adoption of cryptocurrencies,” puts forward Alessandro Benigni, Founder of coinhooked.com.
We agree with this opinion, adding the regulatory and tax issues as well. Making a prediction for 2025 is only an opinion, and by no means financial advice. As history has shown, predictions about financial instruments tend to be very inaccurate, and this is something we witnessed in 2018 as many experts were optimistic about the price of Bitcoin moving much higher than the top formed at $20 000.
We will conduct a technical analysis for the Bitcoin price to express our thoughts, but this will be only for 2019, a short-term forecast.
Bitcoin technical analysis for 2019
Our $4 000 price level as an initial hurdle seems to be valid as the price reached $4 300 and fell below $4 000 again, currently at $3 980. We have seen a recent bottom formed at $3 265 with a double bottom confirmation. But the current trend is still a downtrend supported by the declining daily exponential moving averages of 20 and 50 periods respectively.
The 20-period daily exponential moving average, however, has changed its slope and is now slightly rising, while the 50-period exponential moving average has not changed its slope yet. The recent figures for the 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages are $3 836 and $4 469 respectively. The daily Bollinger Bands are $3 115 and $4 184 for the lower and upper band respectively and have shown decreased volatility in the past few days. Strong support levels are $3 265 and $3 670 and strong resistance levels are $4 290, $4 480, $6 100.
The strength of the trend is still strong, but it has shown losing momentum, meaning that indeed the bottom near $3 265 may hold in the future and a consolidation range may be evident. What is interesting and worth mentioning is the fact that the value of +DI line in the ADX/DMI indicator is now at 23.52 and has crossed above the value of -DI line now at 16.88. This crossover after a selloff from the $6 500 price level to the recent low price of $3 265 is very important.
The importance of 200-period exponential moving average is hard to ignore for our Bitcoin forecast in 2019. This moving average is widely followed by institutional investors as it represents the long-term trend which takes a lot of time to change. The figure for the 200-period exponential moving average is currently at $6 080. This is our target price for 2019 if a change in trend from downtrend to upward is to occur in 2019. We cannot make a prediction to higher levels as our financial analysis shows that indeed the major catalysts that could move the price to higher levels in 2019 are now non-existent in the cryptocurrency market.
Certainly, the scenario of institutional investors entering the market is optimistic for the Bitcoin price. For now, the challenges for Bitcoin in the coming year are both many and severe. What drove the price collapse is possibly the momentum trading which suddenly at the price level of $20,000 rapidly changed direction. The market pessimism about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects may continue into the new year. But if the bear market in 2018 is to end, then at least the price level of $4 000 should hold, and do not forget that our price target of $6 080 is 50% would increase from current price levels, showing a significant price change. This is not financial advice, but rather our Bitcoin price prediction for 2019.