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Bitcoin, Cardano, Ripple Weekly Scenarios: Price Forecast, Oct. 16, 2018

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Bitcoin, Cardano, Ripple weekly scenarios
Bitcoin, Cardano, Ripple Weekly Scenarios: Price Forecast, Oct. 16, 2018
Contents

*** Please note the analysis below is not investment advice. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of U.Today. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin weekly scenarios

Weekly chart

Bitcoin has made a breakout from the major down-trendline which is a pretty important sign for the cryptocurrency. Yesterday, it made very big moves at exchanges where crypto-fiat trading is provided. That happened due to the USDT crash, but currently, things have settled down and we may do a technical analysis for Bitcoin and some altcoins.

On the weekly frame, trading is above the major down-trendline, and the highest high peak was reached. The highest high got confirmed on the one-hour time frame where it made a quick close above the previous level.

Daily chart

Yesterday’s candle close was above some important levels: above the round number $6,500, above the curve support and above the major down-trendline. One and the most significant level was unbeatable at $6,767 but the most important sign is that the candle closed above the major down-trendline. It will show that technically the power is there and buyers manage to hold the price above the trendline.

Speaking of the further action, the first blue line above the current price is the key level. That is a possible scenario; however, power is needed to acquire this level.

Then we could see a movement to the $7,000 and to $7,400 because currently, there are not so much heavy resistances to stop us. The road is definitely not as fast and smooth as it was yesterday. Step-by-step, resistance after resistance.

Four-hour chart

Yesterday we got pretty quick throwback which is not a good sign, but luckily, today we have seen positive actions from important price levels. The price fell down to the super-strong crossing area around $6,700. The major down-trendline, the curve support and the minor trendline pulled from Sept. 22 have met at this point.

The price reacted quickly, and after the close, it formed a bullish “Hammer”, a little consolidation and currently, we fight again with the strong resistance (the blue line at $6,767). If this move upwards is a long-lasting one, then it would be the key point. The retest area (crossing area) was that important because, after the breakout, the price almost always makes a retest, and the climb may continue after that, so as it does now.

In the night, there was some awaiting what is going to happen next. Altcoins were slightly on the red side, and BTC was ready to make a little move. After some raise, Ripple was first to take an action and started to climb higher pretty quickly. Now almost all the altcoins are on the green side to support this breakout from the strong resistance area.

Let’s talk about Bitcoin possible scenarios.

Bullish scenario:

Firstly, the retest, which ended with the “Hammer” pattern, has to hold us, and secondly, we have to take down the strong area at $6,767. This is the first guideline to the higher prices because lately, this level has played a significant role. It has been unbeatable resistance point multiple times and if it finally breaks, we might see a nice move upwards to the next round number $7,000 and from there to the $7,400 higher high point.

Bearish scenarios:

1. A candle closes below the curve support.

2. A candle closes below the brown short-term trendline.

3. A candle closes below the major down-trendline.

Those are the most important supports below the current price, and if the price reaches below the aforementioned levels, then it would be a bad sign. Those criteria make together a strong crossing area, and crossing areas are always the key levels. At least, a four-hour candle closed around $6,550 gives us a break below from the crossing area and leaves only the round number $6,500 which has to hold the ‘fall train’ from falling any further.

Cardano weekly scenarios

Weekly chart

Let’s start from the weekly time frame (the image below). This week Cardano has found a support from the round number at $0.07. This level also worked as a nice support in September because after the rejection from the round number, ADA got a strong push upwards, showing 35 percent growth.

Around this $0.07, there is also a Fibonacci golden ratio of 62 percent which indicates that currently, the bounce occurred from the perfect area. Yesterday, it got a solid bounce upwards and found a resistance from another round number at $0.08 and from August low point which works now as a resistance.

Daily chart

A daily time frame (the image above) shows that the rejection downwards came from the August low and from the short-term down-trendline crossing area which makes this area pretty hard to beat. Currently, Cardano consolidates between the two round numbers and waits for further Bitcoin general actions. The platform (support bounce) is pretty good to make another leg upwards and to attempt to break above the short-term down-trendline one more time.

Four-hour chart

Now let’s dig into the four-hour chart (the image above) to clarify some confirmation areas to predict further movements. In the bigger picture, it shows that we are between the two short-term trendlines which together make a chart pattern called “Triangle”.

Bullish scenario:

On the image, there is a chart pattern called “Double bottom”. The double bottom has formed on the round number area at $0.07, which means that we have bounced upwards two times from the same area. Currently, it has made a retest at the pattern breakout area and the textbook says: “Buy the breakout when you have seen the retest.”

At the moment we have a retest, and this bullish pattern is an indication that our platform is good to go higher IF the market allows it.

To get more confirmations, first of all, we have to break above the round number $0.08 and above the 200 EMA. Those two are our main obstacles before approaching the short-term down-trendline (the triangle) which is also the key to the higher prices. If we got a breakout from the triangle, then we are out of the short-term downtrend and ready to fight with the higher levels resistances at $0.091 and the big round number at $0.1.

Bearish scenario:

If the market and Cardano start to show some weaknesses, then we drop back into the $0.07 area. There are some great supports for us: the round number and the short-term up-trendline (the triangle bottom line). Those two make a crossing area, and if we see a close below the round number and below the trendline, then it would be a bad sign for Cardano. That will mean that momentum is gone and we have broken below the triangle. That will be definitely an ‘alert’ sign. A close below the mentioned levels will guide us to the 2018 low point at $0.06.

Ripple weekly scenarios

Weekly chart

Lately, Ripple has shown incredible growth compared to other altcoins and currently, it makes a throwback (movement downwards) from its peak on Sept. 21. Last week it found support from the major down-trendline, which is pulled from Feb. 17, and worked as in a textbook: the strong candle made a breakout, and last week we made a retest and it bounced upwards pretty nicely. We predicted this scenario in one of our earlier posts mentioning that we might see a bounce upwards from the round number at $0.04. The massive amount of the bounce happened yesterday when XRP made a 25%+ growth just in minutes and currently, it has found a resistance from the $0.5, but we have lots of supports below the current price which will make this coin a little bit more stable.

Daily chart

On the daily chart, we could see that we trade above the 50 and 100 EMA’s, but it is the 200 EMA that works as a resistance. It matches almost exactly with the round number $0.5 which also works as a resistance, and together they make a pretty strong price level. Currently, the price fights with the old support levels which now becomes resistance. Yesterday candle closed below the red box, and it shows that this level works pretty well, so this is the first resistance that we have to take down if we want to see higher prices; a daily candle closed above the box will confirm that breakout. The box price range is around $0.47.

Four-hour chart

Yesterday we got a push upwards and the big bounce was technically from the pretty good area: from the Fibonacci golden ratio of 62 percent and from the round number $0.04. The bounce guides us to higher prices, and now let’s consider possible scenarios at the current level.

Bullish scenario:

We have made our first steps towards higher prices, the last four-hour candle has closed above the earlier mentioned red box which previously was the support. Positive signs are also that the price is above the EMA’s which will support this move upwards pretty strongly. The red box matches exactly with the March low point and currently, the price makes a retest. If the next four-hour candle closes above the box, then it will confirm that the retest was successful and the coin is ready to go higher, but once again, only if the market allows this.

Next resistance is not far from the current price — it is the round number $0.5 which has worked previously as a resistance. If you see at least a four-hour candle closes above the round number, then it would be a confirmation to go to $0.6. The road to the $0.6 is not hard because there are not so many significant resistances before that round number. So, firstly a nice retest candle guides us to the $0.5 and if you see at least a four-hour candle close above $0.5, then it should guide us to the $0.6

Bearish scenario:

Between $0.4 and $0.5 we have multiple important levels, and currently, they all work as support levels — March low, April low, June and July low and the round number $0.4. This makes us a little bit more secure as we know we have so much supports under the current price, but let’s name some of the bearish confirmation areas:

1. A candle close below the red area.

2. A candle close below the EMA’s.

3. A candle close below the gray support area and below the Fibonacci 62 percent.

Those levels are steps to the short-term counter trendline. If the trendline level breaks, then we can assume that the round number $0.4 doesn’t hold us anymore and we probably could go and test the lower levels.

If this scenario occurs, then we might go and retest again the major down-trendline but currently, a close below the gray and Fibonacci 62 percent area will be definitely bad signs.

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Bitcoin’s drop rippled (yes, pun intended) across the entire crypto market, extending to most of the other coins and Ripple was no exception but so far it is showing some toughness and signs of a possible recovery. XRP’s price dropped sharply and pierced support but soon returned above it and seems like people are still holding on to the coin, as shown by Ripple overtaking Ethereum to become once more the second cryptocurrency by market cap, albeit by a very small margin.

Charts at a Glance

Charts at a Glance

After breaching the support at 0.44, XRP/USD reached a low of 0.41 but soon returned above support, thus painting a mixed picture, with unclear follow up. Overall the pair is down 9% in the last day and although this is a substantial drop, XRP has performed less disastrous than other cryptos in the top 10 (excluding Tether).

If the pair can stay above the support at 0.44 – 0.45, it is possible to see a push closer to 0.50 but as mentioned before, the picture is blurry, at least until we know the real reasons behind the recent drop across the board.

Support zone: 0.44 – 0.45

Resistance zone: 0.50

Most likely scenario: bounce higher - the long wicks of the last candles show rejection, RSI is oversold

Alternate scenario: break of 0.44 and drop into 0.40

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Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind

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Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind
Contents

While the first half of Wednesday was filled with doubt and caution, by the end of the day there was a breakthrough, all positions were in the green, trading volumes increased many-fold and the market was filled with euphoria again.

This time, Bitcoin was not the catalyst- its price practically hasn’t changed since yesterday. In our opinion, this was how tension in the minds of investors was released- through the fear of losing profit, as altcoins seemed to reach bottom and had no plans to fall further.

As a result of the efforts of active buyers, capitalization increased by $12 bln and is now $277 bln, while Bitcoin dominance plummeted to 42.7 percent, continuing the trend and confirming yesterday's conclusions. For a little while, the lateral movement of the main asset allowed altcoins to spread their wings.

Another airdrop boosts a coin’s price

Former unity is gone from the top 10- the coins are growing without any regard for their neighbors.

Today’s absolute leader is EOS, growing by 50 percent- an incredible feat for a top asset! This growth was sponsored by the news about the upcoming airdrop of eosDAC tokens for all EOS holders with the support of the large Korean exchange Upbit.

Notably, the trading volumes of EOS in Korea are especially high, comprising nearly half of the global amount.

In second place at today’s rally is NEO, with a gain of 10.5 percent, followed by Cardano with 8.5 percent, and Ripple - somewhat unexpectedly-  in fourth place with seven percent. The remaining assets show more moderate growth of four to six percent. Bitcoin is the outsider today- an increase of 1.5 percent is laughable compared to the success of other coins.

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BTC/USD

In the previous review, we predicted a lateral movement for Bitcoin on Wednesday, with highs around $7,000-$7,150, and we were right.

Our attention was caught by a figure that does not appear in textbooks on technical analysis, but clearly has some power over the price - let's call it the "fish head." It seems that the situation should be resolved in the course of today, more specifically- in its second half.

Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind

Given the proximity of the $7,000-$7,150 range, which is a resistance in view of the presence of mirror levels, as well as the strong 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci expansion values, a false break through the figure is possible. Although considering the bullish sentiment in the market, the fallback is unlikely to be significant. For now, most indicators are suggesting that Bitcoin will move upward, but we can’t forget about the treachery of bears who have interrupted growth more than once before.

If buyers manage to overcome gravity and break out of the lateral trade, today we may see a test of the boundary of the long-term ascending channel, and then a sprint toward $7,500 where another resistance awaits. In case of a negative scenario (we are watching for the break of the figure!), the fall to previously indicated targets remains in force, although it becomes less likely given buyer excitement.

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EOS/USD

For almost three weeks, EOS was resting at the level of $6, preparing, as it turned out, for explosive growth. The surge was only slowed down by the mirror level at $9.2. Three more days remain until the airdrop, so we are likely to see another upward sprint.

Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind

In the context of the current situation, it’s not quite accurate to discuss bull targets - the ongoing events are more like panic purchases, rather than cold calculation and purposeful actions.

However, the set of supports and resistances hasn’t gone anywhere. At the moment, we see the maximum price in the range of $10-$10.5, which is constrained by the mirror level on one side, and the 2.618 Fibonacci expansion on the other. The next growth spurt will be difficult to implement without a small fallback. With a high degree of probability, EOS will make a recovery stop in the region of $8.

It’s difficult to predict how much the price of EOS will fall after the conclusion of the airdrop- it all depends on the state of the market on Sunday. It’s possible that those $8 will become the fair price for the asset for a period of time. In any case, we recommend that EOS investors remain cautious and closely follow the events on Sunday. It is advisable to set stop-loss orders at just below $8, or partially book profit upon reaching $10.

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XRP/USD

Yesterday, Ripple returned to the ranks of assets that draw the interest of investors- this is indicated by the significant initial purchase volume. The last time when we saw such activity was in early March.

As a result, XRP almost reached the level of $0.56, where the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement value is located.

Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind

The nearest growth target, with multiple confirmations, is $0.59, followed by $0.62. No descending channels are pressing down on the price anymore, so everything depends only on the zeal of bulls and the love of investors. The worst is over for Ripple, since the critical support level ($0.45) has been left far below. Cautious purchases will not be in conflict with common sense.

LTC/USD

Once again, many parallels can be drawn between the graphs of Litecoin and Ripple, so we will keep this brief. We also see a surge in buyer activity, confirming that despite all adversity, Litecoin cannot be completely discounted.

Altcoins Grow With Litecoin, Ripple and EOS Leading the Race; Bitcoin Lags Behind

In case of continued ascending movement, the main task of the bulls will be breaking through the boundary of the descending channel and the “cementing” of the $120 level, after which they can try for $130-$132.  Protection is provided by the support zone in the narrow range of $109-$112. It will hold up in any scenario, except that of Bitcoin traveling towards $6,000. Despite the enlivening in Litecoin trading, we still recommend that readers avoid active purchases and direct their attention to other assets.

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Cyber Physical Chain, in case you are wondering what CP stands for, wants to be the new killer app for the Internet of Things (IoT) in China and abroad. According to their website, “CPChain is a new distributed infrastructure for next-generation IoT. CPChain intends to build a fundamental data platform for IoT system in combination with distributed storage, encryption computation and Blockchain technologies, providing the whole process solution from data acquisition, storage, sharing to application.”

Financials

CPChain ran an ICO for what appears to be one day on Jan. 24, 2018, where it raised $30 mln. The initial token entry price was $0.32 on Jan. 30. At the start, the token price was rather volatile with many ups and downs within the first seven days of trading. After the seventh day, the token price fell to a low, where it continued downwards to the current price, at the time of writing of $0.037. The market cap is still a healthy $14.3 mln and the circulating supply is 376 mln out of a total supply of one token shy of one bln.

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Team

The team does not have profiles on LinkedIn. The short notes listed about them are taken from CPChains website.

Chengnian Long- CEO & Founder

“Dr. Long is a full professor and has many years of experience in the fields of cyber physical system security, Internet of Things, distributed intelligent system with Blockchain technology. He has published more than 80 papers in internationally renowned journals and conferences, and has more than 10 patents for invention.”

Bin Zhao- Co-Founder & CTO

“Dr. Zhao has more than 12 years research and development experience on communication, Internet of Things and fintech. Extended experience in management of R&D team. He has three patents on inventions in Internet of Things.”

Qingwei Shi - Co-Founder & COO

“Founder of the shared finance and HPB, participated in the preparation and investment of many projects.”

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IoT, Big Data, and more, oh my!

So what is Big Data and IoT all have to do with CPCHain? Well According to the website,

“The core feature of the CPChain is to realize the transmission of the value of cyber-physical systems. The main technology contribution is to propose a systematic scheme to address the scalability and real-time problems of Blockchain technology in IoTs from the perspective of data storage and computation, and consensus protocols, including parallel distributed architecture, two-layer hybrid consensus mechanism and lightweight side chain consensus protocol.” Looking at the roadmap, CPChain is still a ways away from getting its mainnet online, according to roadmap, we can expect a fourth quarter 2018 release of the mainnet. However, full implementation of the system will not be until 2020 if at best.

IoT, IDK

While IoT has a lot of potential, and we are seeing it more and more in industrial applications and at home, CPChain does not seem to offer anything that really sets them apart from the competition, nor anything that is groundbreaking. There is a token, but there are no details of how it will function or what purpose it serves. While the company has potential, there is just nothing that is standing out and it just falls flat.

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