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If Bitcoin Price Does This, 780,000 BTC Might Be at Risk

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Mon, 5/06/2023 - 15:40
If Bitcoin Price Does This, 780,000 BTC Might Be at Risk
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Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped about 2% over the last 24 hours and is once again below $27,000 as investors continue to consider the effects of the U.S. debt ceiling agreement and last Friday's strong jobs report.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $26,672. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode notes that nearly 780,000 Bitcoins, or the equivalent of 4.6% of the circulating supply, have been acquired at a current spot price of nearly $26,800.

Glassnode adds that with such large swathes of Bitcoin concentrated within a tight price range, a move in either direction would send a significant amount of coins into a position of profit or loss, highlighting the acute sensitivity of this price range.

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Thus, if the Bitcoin price declines below the aforementioned price range, 780,000 BTC could be at risk of entering a position of loss on their holdings.

Bitcoin supply dominance sees dramatic shift

Glassnode observes that the dominance of the Bitcoin supply has seen a dramatic shift over the last two years.

It notes that U.S. entities are now holding 11% less BTC than they were in June 2022, while investors active during Asian trading hours have picked up 9.9%. It adds that this remains a distinct reversal from the 2020-2021 bull cycle.

There are also major shifts underway in stablecoins, as noted, with the USDT supply at new ATHs, while USDC and BUSD fall to multi-year lows. Glassnode says this might suggest that U.S. capital is now less active in digital assets.

The on-chain analytics firm observed considerably weaker demand since April, considering exchange on-chain flows. This is because stablecoin inflows massively offset BTC and ETH inflows in Q1.

However, a trend of larger BTC and ETH inflows (assumed sell-side) relative to stablecoins is now seen as the market corrects lower.

Glassnode concludes by saying that several undercurrents are in play, suggesting a net capital rotation and the migration of liquidity toward lower-risk digital assets.

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