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Over 50 million tokens have been moved in just three days, indicating a surge in on-chain activity on Stellar. Although this number initially appears impressive, the price chart and the state of the market suggest that the asset is not as bullish in the near future. According to XLM's recent price performance, the asset is currently trading at about $0.25 after encountering significant resistance close to the 200-day EMA at $0.284.
It is currently below all of the major moving averages, such as the 50, 100 and 200 EMAs, indicating a slowing of upward momentum. As evidenced by the recent rejection close to the $0.27-0.28 zone, sellers are intervening to halt any breakout attempts. Nothing significant will happen until lower levels around $0.22 are reached, but there is some soft support on the downside in the $0.24-0.25 range.
In addition, volume has been decreasing over the past few sessions, which is a common indication of a weakening trend or consolidation phase. Since the market is neither oversold nor overbought, the RSI is in neutral territory and provides no discernible directional advantage. Although the network activity dashboard shows a noticeable increase in transactions and operations, this has not yet resulted in price growth or bullish momentum.
The recent three-day increase in on-chain volume to 50 million XLM may indicate internal network utility or wallet movement rather than ongoing buying pressure or new participant inflow. Stellar has a strong foundation and a long history on the cryptocurrency market, but it still has trouble producing significant price movement, in comparison to more erratic or popular assets.
Until price action breaks below important structural support levels or reclaims the 200 EMA with volume support, XLM is probably going to stay in a volatile and unpredictable area. Before entering directional positions, traders should exercise caution and await confirmation of either a bullish breakout above $0.28 or a breakdown below $0.24.
Vladislav Sopov