Bitcoin Price Bottom in 2019. Analyzing the Lowest Possible Price of Bitcoin


Bitcoin Price Bottom in 2019. Analyzing the Lowest Possible Price of Bitcoin

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Contents

Bitcoin has become a real phenomenon. Many called it a bubble, a pyramid, even a dummy, but it is steadily improving and grows in value. The blockchain technology is evolving along with it. More and more people, companies and services are using it. There’s an opinion that Bitcoin will become the new gold, and even bypass the precious metal in capitalization. It sounds good, especially for fans of cryptocurrency.

But in the short history of Bitcoin, there have already been many dramatic events. It was predicted to die, but reached a price of $20,000; someone said that it would fly up to a million, and it fell to $3,200. BTC gained thousands of percent and lost hundreds, but one thing is stable – it’s still afloat. But what will be the fate of Bitcoin in 2019? Let’s analyze the bottom of the price for this year. Believe us, there’s a lot to discuss – there are a lot of theories.

We decided to divide the article into blocks because too many opinions and factors need to be in this analysis. In each block, the idea of ​​a lower Bitcoin price will be disclosed based on specific data and events. We will take into account the graphs, predictions of analysts, news and simply interesting theories. Let's start!

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A look into the past of Bitcoin

To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s future, you need to remember its past, and it began in 2009. The coin and blockchain technology quickly gained popularity. They were taken as promising, which was the first step towards price increases. Over the 10 years of its existence, Bitcoin has undergone many changes in protocol and public acceptance. But even more interesting was the price oscillation. We offer a look at the historical highs and lows of prices:

  1. At the beginning of its journey, Bitcoin was worth less than $1.

  2. The first peak was a mark of $30 in July 2011, followed by a fall to $4.

  3. In mid-2013, Bitcoin broke through the price of $200 but rolled back to $120.

  4. An important point was the end of 2013 when the price raised to $1,100. However, the next 2 years were a solid drop for Bitcoin. The bottom was a mark of $240.

  5. The turn happened at the end of 2015, then the stable growth of the coin began. It lasted until the end of 2017 when the price reached a historic high of $20,000.

  6. The entire 2018 was marked by a tremendous fall. Any analysis and forecast turned out to be wrong. Bitcoin reached the bottom of $3,200.

  7. In 2019, growth began, and the maximum price was recorded at $5,600.

Analyses and predictions of many reputable people in the field of cryptocurrencies boil down to the fact that Bitcoin is waiting for a carefree future, and its price will easily overcome the 20-30 thousand dollar mark in the near future. We would like to believe in a similar scenario, but what happened in 2018 and what is happening now can hardly be called a solid rally. Let's be realistic: Bitcoin is fighting for its future, and we will try to make at least some intelligible predictions.

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Is Bitcoin correction just starting?

A few days ago, the situation with the course of Bitcoin seemed extremely optimistic. The main cryptocurrency climbed to the level of $5,500, there was a good news background, and the prediction was a breakout beyond $6,000. However, it wasn’t as it was supposed to be. As of April 25th, a correction has started.

One of the obvious facts is the rapid rise in the price of Bitcoin as of April 2, when the coin took off from $4,200 to $4,800 and soon conquered $5,000. Up until April 25th, no distinct pullbacks were observed throughout the entire period. The only local correction occurred on April 11, and otherwise, recoilless growth was observed.

The current position of the Bitcoin price is at the upper boundary of the ascending channel, so it is unlikely to break through the $6,000 peak. The priority was precisely the fall in prices from the upper boundary of the channel. So it happened. Now the BTC price has fixed in the region of $5,100, and the further vector of movement has set the trend for the next few weeks.

Bitcoin ascending channel chart
Image by TradingView

If you do an analysis of the current situation, looking at the graph of Bitcoin capitalization, you can notice an increasingly pronounced double top. After its refinement and breakdown of the “neck”, capitalization can drop significantly, up to $150 billion. Such a scenario will not only affect the price of Bitcoin, but it will also be bad news for altcoins, which are going through hard times. Even against the background of the BTC growth, the cost of altcoins increased slightly, and individual coins managed to lose value. The overall average growth of 10% after Bitcoin’s pump on April 2 looks depressing against the background of a steady loss in value. And Bitcoin’s role in this decline is the most direct: the level of its domination is growing, and the capitalization of altcoins falls in direct proportion. BTC takes all the interest of players in the market and does not want to share.

Bitcoin's dominance is another conversation. If today's bullish tendencies continue, then within a few months it will step beyond 60%. This will bring the altcoin market down even further. Even today's 55% have a severe effect on altcoins. But we mean to give a prediction of Bitcoin’s bottom price, and not other coins, so we will continue.

To summarize the above:

  1. In the last two weeks, Bitcoin kept in the support area at the level of $5,200, after which it jumped to $5,600. Then the correction began.

  2. It is conditionally possible to distinguish two important zones, which is the same zone of $5,200-$5,100. The second one is the zone under it, which was also traced throughout the month at $5,100-$4,900.

  3. The price has already dropped to the level of $5,100 and even crossed it. The price prediction, in this case, is in the $4,900-$5,100 zone.

  4. A fall below the set point is also possible, but the probability is low.

Bitcoin golden cross: true or false?

Even major media, such as Bloomberg, wrote news about a Bitcoin bull cross for the first time in 3 years. It looks like the truth, but is it a lucky coincidence? Doesn’t it resemble anything? What about 2015?

 BTC chart comparison by kasstim
 Image by TradingView

To understand what's what, it is enough to compare the charts of Bitcoin movement and changes in its price in 2019 and 2015. The scenarios are very similar. The movement began with a low, then a local uptrend, followed by the formation of a “golden cross” at the peak of the price. After we saw a rollback to the bottom. Is history repeating itself? Perhaps we will see a fake cross, followed by a death cross and even a rollback to the price of $3,000-$3,500. But one should not be frightened ahead of time, after reaching the next bottom a reversal should happen and start active growth. The worst Bitcoin price prediction for 2019 for this scenario would be $3,000. But prolonged massaging of the bottom doesn’t seem real.

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End of winter – is it time to buy Bitcoin?

After the BTC pump on April 2, major publications have increasingly written news about cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular. And this is not scepticism, as in the 2018 year, but a specific call to action: cryptocurrencies are promising, buy it! Forbes deserves special attention in this regard. As a rule, news of this edition always reflects what is happening in the cryptocurrency reality. Now, Forbes is talking about the end of crypto winter and a good time to enter the Bitcoin market. In a recent article, the source refers to the results of the Adamant Capital report. It says that it’s time to accumulate Bitcoin as a promising and undervalued asset. Soon, according to Adamant Capital predictions, the next bullish rally will begin. If such statements sound unconvincing, we will say that the company published similar reports in 2012 and 2015 years.

The projected Bitcoin rate during the accumulation period is too blurry; the bottom of the price is around $3,000, and the highest is $6,500. What is important is that small traders and investors have left the market, and the mood has improved significantly.

By analyzing another news story, you can make sure that other authors are confident in the end of crypto winter. Bitcoin is already called new gold, which means overcoming the bottom. Chinese investors, who again show interest in cryptocurrencies, have also intensified. This means that on the Chinese side, Bitcoin’s price will grow.

Forbes says that Bitcoin’s price easily overcomes the mark of $6,000 and even for 2019 it can reach $10,000, with rare rollbacks and corrections of 10-15%. Through the analysis of all the historical falls of Bitcoin’s rate after the main rally, we can see a decrease in the trend, in 2011 – a decline of 93%, in 2014 – 83%, in 2018 – 79%. And the most important thing is that after this, the price starts to grow.

Forbes prediction for Bitcoin’s price in 2019
Image by TradingView

Making an analysis of the monthly growth of Bitcoin’s price, it becomes clear that Bitcoin has overcome its longest series of monthly losses. And this is a strong signal for the bulls. Considering the fundamental aspect, there is no reason for negative sentiment. More and more large companies are using blockchain technology and are actively investing in Bitcoin. Experts speak of 2018 as a period of prolonged correction caused by improper use of the blockchain, ICOs and speculations. 2019, on the contrary, should be the year of the emergence of the “new vision” and the use of Bitcoin. It all comes down to the fact that the bottom is passed, and a rollback to $3,000 looks out of the realm of possibility.

And now it’s worth summing up the interim results. If major media such as Forbes, Bloomberg and others are so actively praising Bitcoin in the news and predicting its explosive growth — get ready for trouble. It’s more like inviting the last passengers to board a ship that will be let to the bottom. What are we observing now? Now the cryptocurrency market is gripped by insanity. Our advice — stay away.

Forecast:

  1. The Bitcoin price with such an alignment may fall below the $5,000 mark.

  2. If it falls even lower, beyond the limits of $4,800, any scenarios are possible.

  3. A rollback to $3,000-$3,500 in the summer, with a negative development.

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Has there been a turnover?

Giving a prediction of Bitcoin’s price bottom for 2019, you need to evaluate the situation as a whole, take into account different scenarios and be prepared for anything. One of these scenarios can be called a situation with a market’s full turn. Let's start the analysis with a fact that the probability of falling is large enough and, perhaps, it has already begun. First of all, we will analyze the downtrend line by the max and min:

  • It was broken in the 2018 year when the price of Bitcoin showed the bottom, and now the situation is the opposite; the line is broken in the opposite direction.

  • The lines were punched on large volumes, which eliminates fake growth.

  • The level of volatility is much lower than at the time of the bottom’s breakout.

Analysis of the ascending channel shows that Bitcoin is located at its upper limit of $5,400. Bitcoin was important to gain a foothold at this point, which couldn’t be done. Movement down has begun. The next point is $4,900, and after that $4,400 also possible. The last point corresponds to the lower boundary of the channel.

Downtrend line analysis
Image by TradingView

If we compare the picture with the scenario of 2015, and they, as we said, are almost identical, the following is obtained:

  • The correction will lower the price to $4,900.

  • Then a false move to the $5,300 mark will follow.

  • After the correction with a possible retest of the bottom could happen.

  • The first retest can stop in the corridor of $3,950-$4,300.

  • The second is $3,600.

  • The third is $3,400.

The probability of falling below the third bottom is quite small, but it is present. In our opinion, the most likely prediction is that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below $4,000-$4,200.

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The dark link between Tether and Bitcoin

You have probably heard the news that Tether released 300 million tokens. But here's the problem: Tether is a stablecoin, that is a coin, confirmed by fiat money, in this case in dollars. And the bottom line is that according to the latest news, altcoins were supplied by only 75% of fiat assets. All because of 850 million that was transferred from the BitFinex exchange, or rather, because they disappeared. Already referred to the credit funds, designed to replace the loss. A dark story. But how are these events related to Bitcoin and its price prediction, you ask? The most direct …

Yes, Bitcoin has prospects, yes, blockchain is the future, and yes, the price can and should grow. But the speed of this growth can be adjusted. How? By infusing real money into the market, creating positive news background, and attracting the attention of potential investors. These are the ones for Bitcoin that Tether is doing. For this purpose, 300 new million Tether coins have been created. Only that this time, everything is a bit more complicated than in 2017, when the Bitcoin “bubble” was inflated to incredible values, and then with the same rapid speed, popped.

Now, with the regulation and rules of the game on the market, everything has become more difficult and repeating the scenario will not be easy. When information about the creation of Tether’s new coins appeared, news about it and active actions against altcoin start too. It follows from this that the fiat component of Tether has a direct impact on the Bitcoin price.

What about the prediction for the bottom price of Bitcoin for 2019 in case of problems with Tether? Hard to call specific numbers, but the fall will happen. It’s hardly worth waiting for a new bottom to breakthrough, so we venture to assume that the price will not fall below $3,200 for the entirety of 2019.

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Analyst opinions on Bitcoin prices in 2019

It would be wrong to ignore the opinions of popular analysts in the field of cryptocurrency. However, they rarely give long-term predictions, especially for the price bottom for the whole year. Here is what we managed to find.

A Twitter user with the nickname The Crypto Dog made a long-term Bitcoin price prediction back in December 2018. Oddly enough, it turns out to be quite accurate today. The analysis also shows the lower price of Bitcoin for 2018. Depending on the development of events, the user predicts such lows:

  • $3,700 — first support zone

  • $3,400 — second support

  • $3,100 — first low

  • $2,800 — new support low

  • $1,800 — absolute bottom

The Crypto Dog’s analysis of Bitcoin’s price for 2019:

CryptoBirb Bitcoin charts prediction:

CryptoBirb's prediction is pretty simple. The user claims that this is the only chart we need. This is either a breakout or a breakdown. The bottom line in this analysis is the mark of $4,600. However, it’s difficult to name the subsequent movement for the rest of the year for this short-term prediction.

Financial Survivalism BTC chart analysis:

User Financial Survivalism made his analysis in which he reviewed the situation with the golden cross. According to him, the golden cross will be true if Bitcoin can stay in the corridor of $4,200-$5,800 during the consolidation period. A fall below a given mark will confirm the fake golden cross, which we have already mentioned in this article. In this case, the price will fall to the annual bottom. All the details of the analysis are in the tweet itself.

The Crypto Monk’s Bitcoin price prediction:

The last tweet that caught our attention belongs to The Crypto Monk. He is critical of the opinion that the Bitcoin’s price will soon fall below $3,000. Such words of the analyst suggest that Bitcoin is waiting only for growth in 2019, and the lower limit is unlikely to break through the previous bottom.

Prediction of Bitcoin’s price bottom in 2019

What will be the minimum price of Bitcoin in 2019 on the basis of all analyses, news and predictions described above? In fairness, we must say, that the next few weeks may be decisive. Depending on the events and their impact on the Bitcoin rate, the price drop may be different. But the fall will definitely occur.

Bitcoin price bottom prediction in 2019
Image by TradingView

The most realistic scenario based on the analysis of the three-day intervals and other factors described in the article is $3,200. The price will reach this mark in September 2019, after which intensive growth will begin.

We systematize course predictions for whole 2019 year:

  • Fall to a mark of $4,900 in the coming weeks.

  • Following the recovery to $5,300.

  • After a protracted fall with periodic corrections to $4,000-$4,200.

  • Reaching the bottom at $3,200 in September 2019, maybe even renewing it.

  • Growth until the end of the year.

Conclusion

Making any predictions, you need to understand that this is a game. Too many factors affect the price of Bitcoin, from capitalization and news background, right up to the mood of large investors and exchanges. Therefore, we cannot declare something specifically. However, we conducted an analysis of the available information, graphs and all kinds of sources. We hope the information was helpful.

Cover image via 123rf.com
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About the author

Starting with a simple interest in cryptocurrency, over the past two years, Denis has worked in a cryptocurrency fund and become an author with an analytical bias. His engineering degree helps with the analysis of the technical part of the cryptocurrency market. As a fan of cryptocurrency, Denis believes that the blockchain technology is the future.

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