Bitcoin (BTC) May Drop Below $25,000 If This Scenario Plays Out: Prominent Analyst

Prominent crypto trader and analyst based in Amsterdam Michael van de Poppe has tweeted that today is a big day since the release of major monthly economic indicators is expected — CPI YoY and CPI MoM.

Besides, the bankrupt FTX exchange is expected to start selling its assets. Here's how the upcoming CPI release may impact the Bitcoin price, according to Poppe.

"Trick or treat," although Halloween is not coming yet

Poppe reminded the community that CPI (consumer price index) will "provide a guideline for the FOMC on their policy" after it is released.

The expected value of CPI YoY is 3.6% with 3.2% in the last month. CPI MoM is expected at 0.6% after the 0.2% that was seen last month.

"Expectations are extremely skewed to the upside, through which yields are still accelerating towards new highs," Poppe wrote in his X post.

The analyst has shared two possible scenarios of how Bitcoin and other risk assets may react to CPI moving higher or lower than expectations. Should both CPIs come higher than expected by economists, risk assets are likely to show "a substantial and heavy sell-off." Bitcoin, in this case, Poppe stressed, may drop below the $25,000 level.

However, should both CPIs come out lower than the level expected, "we can assure that the risk-on assets start to rally, yields fall of a cliff and the outlook becomes more positive."

The analyst added that should this scenario play out, Bitcoin and gold in particular will "start outperforming and the Dollar to lose ground."

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FTX may begin to sell assets

Poppe also mentioned that the former crypto giant FTX, which collapsed in November 2022, and its new managers may start selling the remaining assets today in order to provide compensation to creditors.

A total of $3 billion worth of crypto may be dumped on the market, which naturally makes investors scared. In particular, Poppe mentioned that Solana may see a large sell-off.

Earlier today, however, Chinese crypto journalist Colin Wu shared that there is currently $1.162 billion in SOL in possession of FTX. Sixty-seven percent of these SOL tokens (42.16 million) belong to Alameda and are in a locked state. The date of unlocking is 2025.

"Therefore, there will be no quick and huge dumping," Wu believes.