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In a recent tweet, prominent crypto analyst Rekt Capital shed light on the potential timeline for Bitcoin's (BTC) next bull market peak, emphasizing the critical role of the halving cycle in shaping BTC’s market trajectory. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin historically reaches its bull market peak between 518 and 546 days after a halving event.
Based on this timeline, the next bull market peak could be expected between mid-September and mid-October 2025. However, recent market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin's current cycle may be accelerating compared to historical norms. Notably, the Bitcoin price achieved new all-time high approximately 260 days ahead of the usual schedule.
Pre-halving retrace
Despite the apparent acceleration, Bitcoin has been undergoing a pre-halving retrace over the past month. This retracement has caused a deceleration in the cycle, pushing the timeline closer to 230 days ahead of schedule rather than the previously observed 260 days. This retracement has led to BTC slowing down its momentum, effectively lengthening the bull market cycle by about 30 days so far.
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital also introduced an "Accelerated Perspective" that considers the time from when Bitcoin breaks its previous all-time high to the potential bull market peak. In this scenario, the peak could be anticipated between 266 and 315 days after surpassing the previous all-time high. Given that BTC reached new all-time highs in March, this perspective suggests that the next bull market peak might occur between December 2024 and February 2025.
Overall, both the traditional halving cycle timeline and the Accelerated Perspective offer valuable insights into Bitcoin's potential bull market peak. The ongoing acceleration in the current cycle suggests that the typical halving cycle length could be halved, potentially leading to a quicker market peak.
However, it is crucial to consider the impact of retracements and consolidations on the overall cycle. Extended periods of retracement or consolidation could further slow down the cycle, delaying the expected bull market peak. As Bitcoin continues to navigate its current market cycle, the community is closely monitoring these key factors to gain a clearer understanding of when the next bull market peak might occur.
Alex Dovbnya
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov