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There is a date circled in red on Arthur Hayes’ calendar, and it is not some crypto conference or a Fed meeting — it is April 15, good old U.S. Tax Day, the deadline when the market might finally stop holding its breath.
The ex-BitMEX boss thinks Bitcoin has a simple but brutal test to pass before then: stay above $76,500 per BTC, no fakeouts, just steady holding. If it does, the nervous choppiness choking the market right now could finally ease up. If it does not, then one can expect more of the same sideways agony.
Alex DovbnyaThis is not just another random price prediction. Once the taxman gets his cut, the forced selling from over-leveraged traders and panicked holders dries up, and the real move begins. If Bitcoin (BTC) clears this hurdle, Hayes is not just betting on a modest rally.
He previously voiced that $250,000 is Bitcoin's year-end target, the kind of number that sounds outrageous until you remember that this is the same guy who has been right more often than wrong when it comes to crypto’s wild swings.
Caroline AmosunOf course, none of this is guaranteed. Markets hate deadlines almost as much as they hate uncertainty, and April 15 is both. But Hayes’ logic is cold and simple: if Bitcoin can absorb the tax-season dump without crumbling, the path ahead becomes a lot clearer. No fireworks, no grand announcements — just a clean breakout or another frustrating stall.
Either Bitcoin proves it can take the punch, or we are in for more of the same shaky volatility until the next big narrative takes over.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin