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Weeks after the fourth Bitcoin (BTC) halving event, industry leaders have continued to speculate on what the future holds for the top coin. Joining this conversation is billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who noted that it is ultimately feasible for the Bitcoin price to hit an all-time high (ATH) of $500,000 in a few years.
Theoretical projection based on history
According to Chamath Palihapitiya, Bitcoin is known to record major growth about 12 to 18 months after the halving event. In the first month to the third month after each halving, the price of Bitcoin generally records flatter growth.
Yuri MolchanThe first halving cycle scored its first most significant upsurge after six months with over 10.67x growth. The second and third halving cycles also recorded growth but more mildly, with 1.34x and 1.79x surges, respectively.
While the first halving continued its growth trajectory, the second and third halving saw the most significant surges of 27.92x and 7.80x about 18 months after the halving event. Should this track record be retraced, then Palihapitiya surmised that the current consolidation is within the historical growth pattern of the coin.
He also noted that one major difference in this cycle is the commercialization of Bitcoin, with spot ETF products now trading in the United States. While he noted that his position does not constitute financial advice, he said Bitcoin’s price could top $500,000 by October 2025 if it follows the pattern exhibited by cycles two and three.
Bitcoin price and Ethereum ETF influence
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is pegged at $69,035.09, up by 1.93% in the past 24 hours. The coin has hovered around the $60,208.78 and $71,946.46 price marks over the past month, as accumulation and outflows by spot Bitcoin ETFs defined its pace.
Mushumir ButtOne major trigger many are anticipating to kickstart the next leg of Bitcoin’s rally is the commencement of trading of spot Ethereum ETF products.
Yuri Molchan
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin
Alex Dovbnya