2018’s First Quarter Bitcoin Nightmare, But Quarter Two Holds Promise

  • Darryn Pollock
    📰 News

    The first quarter of 2018 has been the worst on record for Bitcoin, but the second quarter has every reason to be better


2018’s First Quarter Bitcoin Nightmare, But Quarter Two Holds Promise

 

The first quarter of the year closed out at the end of March with Bitcoin succumbing to its worst start of a year since its inception. The price of the cryptocurrency has fallen from $13,400 on Jan. 1 to $7,260 on March 30, marking a more than 45 percent decline.

However, if historical trends are to be believed, then quarter two could well be a bumper few months for Bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies. Just like there are reasons for quarter one being poor, quarter two holds potential for the price to again spike towards those early year highs.

Bring the tailwinds

Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital and a CNBC "Fast Money" contributor, believes that Q2 will be better for Bitcoin after Q1 proved to be a bad few months.

"Q2 is always good for Bitcoin," Kelly said. "There will be a significant rally here if seasonality brings tailwinds."

The seasonal tailwinds that Kelly mentions include things like an upcoming annual development cycle and a number of big conferences, such as Consensus in May, that usually inspire positive sentiment.

Reasons for the bounce

In order for Bitcoin to bounce in the second quarter, it had to have started on a low point. The reasons for Bitcoin’s Q1 low point include things like the tax-selling season and the boom in regulatory pressures.

Tax-selling season is now winding to a close at the start of Q2, and even the regulators are starting to fade from the forefront. Many bold statements have been made, but there will be a breach before any hard and fast rules come into effect.

"We've gone to the extreme of the regulation which is South Korea thinking they're going to ban it, the US talking about everything being a security, to walking it back," Kelly said. "You're seeing a shift again in that type of thing. I think most of that's behind us."

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