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Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg intelligence strategist, has recently highlighted an intriguing trend that could have significant implications for the crypto market, particularly concerning the relationship between Bitcoin, gold and S&P 500.
In a recent analysis, McGlone highlighted the slumping Bitcoin/gold cross, particularly to the S&P 500 and its broader implications for risk assets. The analysis also reflects on Bitcoin's rally post-SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to McGlone, the January U.S. ETF launches boosted inflows, strengthening Bitcoin's status as a leading indicator. It was a near-perfect storm as Bitcoin attained all-time highs in Q1, but it did not make new all-time highs versus gold and S&P 500, failing to surpass peaks set in 2021.
Given that the inflows into the Bitcoin ETFs have relatively slowed, the hangover may have implications for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Tomiwabold OlajideMcGlone explained that Bitcoin was climbing against gold the last time the S&P 500 e-mini future crossed above its 50-week moving average in November, but now the Bitcoin/gold cross is falling.
The slumping Bitcoin/gold cross, in contrast to the S&P 500's performance, might indicate a potential reversal in risk assets that could have far-reaching consequences.
Bitcoin price action
At the time of writing, BTC was down 3.29% in the last 24 hours to $60,779 as the crypto market faced selling pressure. According to crypto analyst Michael Van De Poppe, Bitcoin currently trades at a crucial level; failure to hold at $60,000 may result in selling to $55,000 or $52,000, after which the rising trend continues.
In late April, Bitcoin experienced its halving event, which has historically been a chopping sell-the-news event in the immediate term. The fourth halving was no exception, with the Bitcoin price falling shortly after and trading near $57,000. This is the lowest price in the past two months, and the market has been flat since the halving date.
Measured from the above $73,000 all-time high reached in mid-March, Bitcoin prices fell by nearly 20%, which is the deepest correction on a closing basis since the FTX lows in November 2022. Howbeit, Glassnode deduces that this macro uptrend might be one of the most resilient in history, with comparatively shallow corrections thus far.
Alex Dovbnya
Denys Serhiichuk
Valeria Blokhina
