Bitcoin last halved on May 11, 2020, yielding a block reward of 6.25 BTC. The aftermath of the record global market plunge in March 2020 had Bitcoin trading around the $8,000 level at the last halving event.
Price at the Halving is historically at Fair value.
— Root 🥕 (@therationalroot) October 9, 2022
Assuming Fair value doesn't move much lower, that would mean ~$40k in 18 months.#Bitcoin On-chain Value Map: pic.twitter.com/qpoxoqE8He
Using the Bitcoin on-chain value map, on-chain analytics data-focused Twitter account "Root" indicates that the price at the halving is at a historically fair value. According to the analysis, if the fair value does not decrease significantly, Bitcoin might reach about $40K in 18 months. Another important element to consider in this scenario is the current macroeconomic environment.
When will Bitcoin hit bottom?
Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole, considered previous cycles to determine where BTC might eventually bottom. Crypto analyst Will Clemente previously posted a graphic comparing the distance between the all-time highs for Bitcoin and the ensuing macro lows. In both 2014 and 2018, Bitcoin established a macro bottom after its previous new all-time high in a predetermined time frame.
We are in the 90 day window where the last 2 Bitcoin cycles bottomed https://t.co/lMD82w4sOT
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) October 10, 2022
Referencing Clemente's chart, Charles Edwards wrote, "We are in the 90-day window where the last 2 Bitcoin cycles bottomed."
Bitcoin was trading at $19,400 at the time of writing, down 71% from its record high of about $64,000 set in November 2021 but still less compared to 2018, suggesting room to the downside.
#Bitcoin | Losing the $19,000 support level can spell trouble! https://t.co/U81bjTS2bE
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 10, 2022
Crypto analyst Ali claims that Bitcoin needs to hold the $19K support level to avoid a sharp decline. At this price level, 1.3 million addresses have purchased more than 680,000 BTC, and on-chain data indicates that there is little-to-no support below it.
The CEO of Cryptoquant, Ki Young Ju, believes that when significant USDC stablecoin pours into exchanges, the next bull run for Bitcoin may start. This may indicate the emergence of "purchasing power" on the market.
According to him, 94% of the supply of USDC is now held by nonexchanges, some of which are owned by major traffic companies like BlackRock, Fidelity and Goldman Sachs. However, crypto-native stablecoins like BUSD are currently flooding exchanges, which may indicate that some crypto-natives are amassing some coins.
Denys Serhiichuk
Alex Dovbnya
Gamza Khanzadaev