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Bitcoin's strong July rally may be giving bulls a reason to smile, but the next page on the calendar brings a very different tone. From a statistical perspective, August is Bitcoin’s worst-performing month, and price history suggests that trouble may be on the horizon.
Of all the months, August has the lowest median return, at -8.3%. The average return is not much better at just -0.23%, with repeated sell-offs during this period putting a damper on things.
The numbers do not lie. In 2024, BTC fell by 8.73% in August. In 2023, it fell by 11.2%. And in 2022? Down another 14%. That is three consecutive years of significant losses, wiping out gains and reversing uptrends.
Historically, the only hope for better Augusts, such as the +14% in 2021 or the +2.54% in 2020, came in the middle of a bull cycle, just like the current state of the market.
BTC is currently trading at around $119,000, ending July with an 11.3% monthly increase. Nevertheless, the chart is already flattening right under the $120,000 resistance zone. Without a new catalyst or volume spike, the outlook is uncertain heading into the end of the month.
What makes August especially dangerous is that selling usually starts quickly. Historically, early August often brings sharp pullbacks, particularly in years with strong Julys. It is a classic mean-reversion setup.
So while July may close in the green, August has a long track record of changing the mood. Unless Bitcoin breaks this pattern, the next 30 days could see BTC enter its weakest seasonal period — and possibly rewrite the record books for all the wrong reasons.
For now, the bulls have nine days left before the calendar turns against them.
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team