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The surge that pushed Bitcoin (BTC) up more than 2.4% to $88,000 today may be short-lived. Although it came suddenly and was not widely expected — especially with Easter Sunday and a long weekend — the surge caused a palpable shift in sentiment among crypto market participants.
From uncertainty, fear and doubt to greed, the mood changed quickly, with some experts now calling this the last chance to buy Bitcoin before it reaches $100,000 or even the $200,000 BTC predicted by Robert Kiyosaki.
Gamza KhanzadaevBut the harsh reality may be that the sudden rally is about to end here. There are many reasons to support this prediction, but three in particular stand out.
The first is that after today's surge, the price of Bitcoin hit the 200-day moving average on the daily chart. Previously, Bitcoin broke through this important line in March, tested it in early April, saw a rejection and has now returned to it — and once again failed to break above it.
The second reason is also technical and involves the Bollinger Bands. It just so happened that the upper band of this popular indicator coincided exactly with the same point where the 200-day moving average lies — also on the daily time frame. What’s more, after the spike, Bitcoin hit the upper band, which can signal an "overbought" situation for the leading cryptocurrency.
Yuri MolchanFinally, the third reason is that on the weekly chart, Bitcoin's RSI indicator has hit a trendline resistance that continues to hold after a previous bearish divergence on the chart. A closer look reveals a similarity to the situation in September 2024.
But back then, BTC managed to break above that resistance — while now, it has only touched it.
Alex DovbnyaAdd to this the headlines screaming “all-time high” for gold, the narrative that Bitcoin is about to follow in the precious metal’s footsteps and Michael Saylor buying $555 million worth of BTC.
Optimism is definitely in the air — but so are the perfect conditions for yet another cruel sell-off that finesses overexcited market participants.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin