Is British Pound Going Up? Forex & CFD Weekly Forecast

On Friday, Nov. 2, 2018, the US dollar pared losses on surprising the US nonfarm payroll data. The US Unemployment Rate for the month of October 2018 actual figure was 3.7% vs. 3.7% forecast, and the USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls actual figure was 250K vs. 200K forecast.

These strong numbers pointing a solid growth in the US labor market will be the focus for the US Dollar trend this week as we are approaching the midterm elections and most importantly the FOMC Rate Decision on Thursday, Nov. 8, 2018. This week, there are three monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, all of them being key economic events.

These are the main forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY this week.

EUR/USD Forecast

Weekly Pivot Points for the pair are S1 1.1307, Pivot 1.1382 and R1 1.1461. As the pair is trading under its 20-period and 50-period EMA daily moving averages, there should be a range trading between 1.1450 and 1.1300, favoring the downside.

GBP/USD Forecast

British Pound strengthened the previous week over favorable news regarding Brexit. Is it likely to continue the bullish momentum in the coming week?

Weekly Support & Resistance Levels:

• Key Trading Level: 1.2899

We estimate that the recent move was a result of positive sentiment over Brexit news; no fundamental event to support it and profit taking should result in a trading range between 1.30 and 1.28 favoring the downside. On Friday, Nov. 9, 2018, the GDP Growth Rate for the third quarter is a key economic event with expectations for an increase for the yearly figure at 1.5% vs. 1.2% previous figure and 0.6% vs. 0.4% previous figure for the quarter.

AUD/USD Forecast

Weekly Support & Resistance Levels

• Key Trading Level: 0.708

We anticipate no change to be made at the latest Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018, keeping the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. A trading range of 0.72–0.70 should hold, favoring the downside as the pair is trading below its 20-period and 50-period EMA daily moving averages.

How about the situation on the US stock market?

Keep an eye out for the midterm elections, an interest rate decision from the Fed, and earnings from big names like Disney and Marriott.

Apple Stock

On Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) released its earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter, and these were the actual vs. forecasts:

• Earnings: $2.91 per share vs. $2.78, forecast by Refinitiv consensus estimates

• Revenue: $62.9 bln vs. $61.57 bln, forecast by Refinitiv consensus estimates

• iPhone sales: 46.89 mln vs. 47.5 mln, forecast by FactSet and StreetAccount estimates

• iPhone average selling price (ASP): $793 vs. $750.78, forecast by FactSet and StreetAccount estimates

Despite a beat on both earnings and revenues, shares of Apple fell more than seven percent — falling below its historic $1 trillion market cap following the release closing at $207.48 on Friday, Nov. 2, 2018.

Although the stock is now trading below its 20-period and 50-period EMA daily averages, a price near the $200 psychological level should provide a bounce towards the recent $233.47 52-week high price a buying opportunity.