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BTC Looks Bullish, XMR Has Waited For Opportunity, ETH Is In Trouble: Price Analysis, Oct. 5, 2018

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  • Vaido Veek
    📈 Price Predictions

    Bitcoin is technically good to make another ‘leg’ upwards, Monero is getting ready for breakout, Ethereum is in trouble

BTC Looks Bullish, XMR Has Waited For Opportunity, ETH Is In Trouble: Price Analysis, Oct. 5, 2018
Cover image via u.today

Disclaimer: The opinion expressed here is not investment advice – it is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of U.Today. Every investment and all trading involves risk, so you should always perform your own research prior to making decisions. We do not recommend investing money you cannot afford to lose.

Contents

*** Please note the analysis below is not investment advice. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of U.Today. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is technically good to make another ‘leg’ upwards

Yesterday was bullish-day and the "Hammer" worked nicely as a bullish pattern. BTC price found a resistance from the trendline which is pulled from July 24. Several attempts in the lower time frames to break upwards have failed, and currently, it makes a healthy little throwback (movement downwards). Healthy, because after impulse wave (yes, this is tiny impulse) there is always a correction before we can start another movement upwards.

The current correction has founded a support from the golden Fibonacci ratio at 62 percent, and we discovered a very strong area on the chart between the $6,530-$6,550 (marked with the orange 'box'). This area has worked historically as a strong support and as a strong resistance and no single candle close inside this orange area, only powerful candles through the area up-and-down, this makes this area super strong. If the current scenario holds us, then there is almost a perfect starting point to go to the higher levels.

First bullish confirmation is a trendline breakout, if we get at least a four-hour candle close above the trendline then it could mean another leg upwards to the next strong resistance at $6,767.

Let's count down all the bullish price action criteria:

1. Oct. 3. we got a bullish candlestick pattern "Hammer"

2. Yesterday (Oct. 4) we got a nice impulse upwards

3. Current throwback has  found a support from the golden Fibonacci level at 62 percent

4. Current throwback has found a support from the super-strong area

So, technically Bitcoin is ready to break that trendline!

To confirm bearishness then the candle close below the orange area will guide us to the lower levels and the full bearish confirmation is then when we also get a candle close below the $6,460 (blue line).

Monero (XMR/USD) awaiting breakout

Monero looks a little bit suspicious and looks like it needs to wait a moment and for the opportunity to break upwards from the triangle.

Currently, there have been several attempts to break through the counter trendline, but it has held the price nicely. Slowly, XMR’s move into the triangle tip to explode and if Bitcoin makes a move upwards and it breaks the trendline then definitely Monero has waited the perfect moment to do the same. At the moment it trades above the 200 EMA on the four-hour chart.

The counter trendline and the 200 EMA make together a strong support area below the current price. So, the only way that we could see a Monero coming down is if the BTC can't break that resistance and starts to come down, a candle closes around $6,450. In this case, we can say that Monero comes down also but currently, doesn't looks like that.

For breakout from the upper trendline, there are two target areas at $128 and $140. Those are the recently worked resistances, and we would recommend to take out some profits in this area because around $150 is just hell. There are multiple monthly supports and resistances that you never want to be on Monero if we reach into this area. The bounce downwards could be probably massive if the scenarios matching each other.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is in trouble

Ethereum is in trouble. Almost all the altcoins trade above the major counter-trendline but Ethereum is not on the list anymore.

It has a break downwards from the trendline and from the strong area which is not a good sign, but we can find something positive also. Currently, it has an opportunity to make a new higher low on the market structure, and it shows that the power is still there, but we lost the momentum. It has difficult times ahead to break above the first strong area at $225, and it is even harder because on the four-hour chart there are also 50 and 100 EMA's which started to work as a resistance.

To see a bullish Ethereum:

1. BTC and the whole market has to start to grow, Ethereum can't push the price upwards by itself!

2. It has to break above the blue line at $225

3. It has to break above the counter trendline

4. And the final confirmation is a break above the second strong resistance at $236

If the market can't find that power, then we may come down to the "smoother trendline" (brown line) and even lower than that! So, be careful!

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About the author

Vaido Veek hopes to become a leading voice in technical analysis by educating people about how the perfect TA  should look like. He has over 5 years of charting experience and loves to solve the patterns that   they show us. His slogan is "keep it simple"!

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Why China Fever on Bitcoin is Already Dropping After 1 Month of Blockchain Optimism

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  • Joseph Young
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    The so-called “China fever” on crypto like bitcoin has noticeably declined since President Xi’s speech on October 28.

Why China Fever on Bitcoin is Already Dropping After 1 Month of Blockchain Optimism
Cover image via 123rf.com
Contents

Since Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his support for blockchain technology on October 28, the so-called “China fever” on crypto like bitcoin has noticeably declined.

The price of bitcoin fell from around $10,600 to $8,500 and cryptocurrencies that are known have Chinese development teams such as NEO, Ontology, and TRON have slightly increased over the past three weeks, but not enough to be described as a speculative mania.

Why demand for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is not on the rise

Following the newly established vision of the Chinese government to push the development of blockchain technology, expectations for strengthened momentum of the cryptocurrency market rapidly increased.

Initially, such expectations combined preceded an abrupt overnight increase in the price of bitcoin to above a key “psychological level” at $10,000, but the price fell back to “pre-Xi” levels in a relatively short period.

Global markets analyst Alex Krüger said:
“Have mainland China investors increased their demand for bitcoin? BTC volumes quickly dropped back to pre Xi news levels; online searches in China are back down to pre Xi news levels; website traffic for exchanges catering to China barely changed since the news.

The ‘Chinese tokens,’ NEO, ONT and TRX, have all done well since the aftermath of the news, while VET (a supply chain oriented blockchain) has been cruising on China news. Don't think though this is a sign of a ‘speculative fever’ of any kind.”

The analyst emphasized that prior to the statement of President Xi on the focus of China to facilitate the development and implementation of blockchain technology, the penetration of cryptocurrencies in the region was already high.

Also, most mainland Chinese cryptocurrency investors are said to have been trading digital assets through overseas markets like Hong Kong, purchasing stablecoins like Tether with the Hong Kong dollar.

Hence, it is possible that the public already anticipated the government of China to eventually reiterate its plans to encourage blockchain development with the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) consistently stating that its plans for a state-operated digital currency is in the works.

“It is without doubt that with the announcement of Libra, governments, regulators and central banks around the world have had to expedite their plans and approach to digital assets,” Dave Chapman, BC Technology Group executive director, said.

Is this the end of the Xi-effect?

Some technical analysts have suggested that the upside movement of bitcoin to $10,600 in late October may have not been primarily fueled by the optimism around China’s blockchain development initiative, and that a cascade of short liquidations amidst a build up of sell pressure caused the rally.

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About the author

Joseph Young is an analyst based in South Korea that has been covering finance, fintech, and cryptocurrency since 2013. He has worked with various recognized publications in both the finance and cryptocurrency industries.

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