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Though the price of Bitcoin has been rising recently, a deeper look indicates that the market might not be prepared for a big breakout as the majority of investors are taking profits. Although Bitcoin has displayed some bullish trends, the data suggests that a significant rally may not be coming anytime soon.
First, the flow of the market indicates a tendency wherein it is more common to view the current price action as a chance to take profits or to sell long positions than it is to initiate new ones. The actions of traders who are closing long positions and spot traders who are taking profits at these points make this clear.
The market might not be prepared for an explosive move higher just yet, as such flow patterns usually take time to develop into a more structurally bullish trend. Furthermore, an understanding of the current market position requires an understanding of the liquidity dynamics around $60,000 and $61,000.
Alex DovbnyaIt appears that sellers are hesitant to drive the price higher in the absence of strong buyer support because the ask liquidity at $60,000 was pulled just prior to a taker-driven pump. Further more, there is a substantial supply beginning at $61,000, which establishes a contextual barrier that the market may find difficult to overcome in the absence of stronger purchasing interest.
The positioning on the futures market is another important consideration. The perpetual futures data indicates that poorly positioned shorts may have been squeezed out even though the trend is still spot-driven, which is generally positive for the market.
But aggressive long positions, which usually signal strong confidence in a sustained upward move, are not being established. It appears that there is buying but not enough to drive the price much higher at this time, based on the decline in open interest (OI) and the rising CVDs and delta. Finally, it is concerning that there have not been any limit bids since the $57,000 lows. A high-time-frame (HTF) rally would require additional support in the form of rising limit bids to give the price a more solid foundation upon which to rise.
Alex Dovbnya
Godfrey Benjamin
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov