According to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund and on-chain analyst, January was massive for Bitcoin, and not just because the BTC price rose significantly.
January was massive for Bitcoin, not just because price went up a lot. I believe it was the start of the bull market for Bitcoin for these 9 reasons:— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) February 28, 2023
He believes that January, which saw the Bitcoin price rise by 40%, was the start of the bull market for Bitcoin for several reasons. First, according to several on-chain metrics, including trading at its electrical cost for two months, Bitcoin has exited a multi-month deep value phase.
This has historically been the global price floor for Bitcoin, and it has been the second longest time spent at this price in Bitcoin's history.
Second, Bitcoin eclipsed the price collapse of the top three frauds in human history in just two months. Also, the most crucial price level on the Bitcoin chart has seen a major technical price confirmation.
The $20K breakout represents five things: the 2017 all-time high, the FTX collapse price, the critical order block level, round number support and, lastly, at this level, mining becomes unprofitable.
Also, the 40% short squeeze experienced in January was identical to that seen in the 2021 China mining ban Bitcoin price bottom.
Bitcoin enters new regime of upward movement
According to Edwards, Bitcoin has entered a new regime of upward momentum, confirmed by multiple long-term moving averages, while daily averages are currently curving up.
Also, an optimal halving cycle period, where Bitcoin normally bottoms, may have emerged. Like clockwork, Bitcoin has always reached its lowest point 12 to 18 months before every halving.
The Bitcoin cycle drawdown hit typical 80% levels in late 2022, when sentiment was at its worst and market hedging was at its highest on record.
Lastly, the crypto market is approaching a macroeconomic regime change. Edwards predicts that 2023 will likely see a Fed rate pause and change of policy.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was marginally down at $23,312.