Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, and his team have estimated the approval odds of several altcoin ETFs.
The odds of an XRP ETF being approved this year currently stand at 65%.
These are the lowest odds among some of the top altcoins that already have spot ETF proposals in the U.S.
The fact that the SEC does not currently view the Ripple-affiliated cryptocurrency as a commodity substantially hampers its odds.
Arman ShirinyanA spot Solana ETF, for comparison, has a 70% chance of approval. While SOL is also not viewed as a commodity after being identified as an unregistered security in the SEC's lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, it might have higher odds due to the fact that the SEC has already acknowledged Grayscale's Solana ETF proposal.
Litecoin (LTC) ETF proposals have the highest approval odds, 90%, due to the fact that the token has no regulatory baggage. According to Bloomberg, the SEC likely views LTC as a commodity.
Notably, Dogecoin (DOGE) is more likely to get its own spot ETF approved in the U.S. this year compared to XRP and SOL.
Polymarket odds
Polymarket users are currently more bullish on XRP ETFs. At press time, such products have an 81% chance of being approved this year on the world's leading betting website.
Alex DovbnyaAs reported by U.Today, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse previously stated that the approval of an ETF based on the XRP token is "just inevitable."
Yuri Molchan
Alex Dovbnya
Dan Burgin
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