Why Hasn't Uptober Arrived Yet?

What is happening

The beginning of October marked a relatively negative view for the crypto market. Most of top cryptocurrencies faced substantial losses in the first week of the month. For instance, Bitcoin price lost almost $5000, dropping below $61,000 on Oct. 3.

A short-lived rebound ended up in a bloodbath this past week. On Thursday, the market lost at least $180 million, while the price of Bitcoin briefly found itself as low as $58,946.

However, buyers showed their hand, and over the next 12 hours, this imbalance, as they see it, was restored, with Bitcoin now trading as high as $62,709.

BTC in trouble

Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, and data from the past five years shows consistent bullish performance.

While Bitcoin typically sees losses in September, this year it posted an 11% gain. This marks a significant departure from its usual September trends, where the average loss has been around 5.9%.

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Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing an extended sideways phase, which is unusual in halving years. According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may have only two weeks left to start a rapid surge, based on historical patterns observed after previous halvings.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has raised some concerns, suggesting that Bitcoin could face a major crash, up to 75%.

Brandt’s analysis is based on the fact that Bitcoin has not reached a new peak within 30 weeks of its last all-time high of $73,737.94, recorded on March 14. Historically, failing to do so has often preceded dramatic declines in the cryptocurrency's price.

Will Uptober finally arrive?

The market makers are usually aware of the upcoming rally, trying to find the perfect spot to buy the dip. This is the main reason for assets to drop in value right before the bull run begins.

Bitcoin price history can give us a hint of when the current Uptober could actually begin.

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For instance, in 2020, BTC price remained relatively weak until Oct. 16. The anticipation paid off, as Bitcoin gained around 30% within the next two months.

In 2021, the crypto market went through the roof, as seen on the chart below.

The market crash of 2022 sent the price back to $20,000-$25,000 levels. However, the beginning of 2023 marked a recovery for the crypto market in general.

Again, that year’s Uptober started around Oct. 15-16. The BTC price propelled from $27,000 to 38,300 by the end of November.

Overall, the historical evidence suggests that this next week can be a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and crypto market in general. However, it’s important to remember that sometimes Uptober can start a week later, while price history doesn’t always repeat itself.