In his new essay, "Fatty Fatty Boom Boom," crypto legend Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom Fund, foresees the great comeback of foreign capital to the U.S. with the current presidential adminstration. While it is still unknown which part of this capital will find its way to Bitcoin (BTC), the effect could be massive, the blockchain vet says.
Bitcoin (BTC) to jump to $1 million as foreign capital gets back to U.S.
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is projected to reach $1,000,000 "sometime between now and 2028." Such an impressive statement was shared by Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom Fund in his essay today.
MHayes indicates two potential catalysts for a 10x rally of Bitcoin (BTC) price. First, as the "divorce" between Chinese and U.S. economies becomes more and more obvious, U.S. capital (in U.S. Dollars predominantly) will not be deployed abroad any longer.
Given the aggregated foreign "portfolio" size of some $33 trillion, Mr. Hayes expects a significant part of it to be utilized for buying Bitcoin (BTC). Even if the exact share of this "investing" hits 10%, it still lays the foundation for unparalelled growth:
At current market prices, exchanges hold roughly $300 billion of Bitcoin. If 10x the amount of capital attempted to squeeze into the market, it would lead to a much greater than a 10x rise in price.
Also, opportunities to invest in Bitcoin (BTC) will be highlighted by the devaluation of U.S. commercial paper. This process is not something new, Hayes points out, as U.S. treasuries lost 64% and 84% of their value in pairs with gold (XAU) and Bitcoin (BT), respectively, from 2021 to the present.
The initial phase of this "slow default" started back in 2008 after the global financial crisis. As such, this trend has only gained traction for at least 17 years.
"Tactical short positions" will still be relevant amid potential rally
The year 2028 was chosen as the timeline for Bitcoin (BTC) rally as it is the end of this administration's tenure and the start of a new election cycle in the U.S.
At the same time, Arthur Hayes recommends investors to remain cautious. Personally, as Maelstrom Fund CIO, he reduced risk in January 2025 and increased cash allocation.
The prospects of $1 million per BTC do not mean there won’t be opportunities to take tactical short positions, Hayes added, concluding that this road might be "rocky."
The Bitcoin (BTC) price slightly retraced in last 24 hours, dropping to $101,800. The bet capitalization of crypto markets losses is 2.8%.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin