Dennis Porter, CEO of SatoshiActFund, observes that Bitcoin's volatility is currently at historic lows. Posting a chart, he noted that the last time Bitcoin volatility fell this low, "it went on a 600% rip."
Last time #Bitcoin volatility was this low it went on a 600% rip. pic.twitter.com/BKzCGsZb0k
— Dennis Porter (@Dennis_Porter_) December 27, 2022
On-chain data reveals that Bitcoin volatility is at an all-time low. In the chart Porter posted, he points to a similar drop in volatility in late 2020.
It should be recalled that Bitcoin broke out of the consolidation phase in October 2020. Its price was then a little below $10,000. Fast forward to almost a year later, when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021, representing a near 600% increase.
Per crypto analysts tracking historic BTC volatility levels, another time volatility fell to near-current levels was in late 2018. This was a bear market identical to the current situation, with crypto prices decreasing for the entire year.
Will history repeat itself?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was marginally down in the last 24 hours at $16,833. Bitcoin has been stuck in a tight range between $16,570 and $16,911 since Dec. 21.
#Bitcoin sits between two significant supply walls. One at $16,600 where 1.46 million addresses hold 915K #BTC and the other one at $17,000 where 1.27 million addresses hold 730K $BTC.
— Ali (@ali_charts) December 26, 2022
A sustained move outside of this area will likely determine the direction of the trend. pic.twitter.com/oGNdbcPV0k
While Bitcoin consolidates, crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that a sustained move outside of $16,000 and $17,000 may likely determine the trend's direction.
Referring to IntoTheBlock's on-chain data, Bitcoin sits between two significant supply walls: one at $16,600, where 1.46 million addresses hold 915,000 BTC, and another at $17,000, where 1.27 million addresses hold 730,000 BTC.
However, a sustained move outside of this range could determine the trend's direction. As the year 2023 approaches, investors should be mindful that the current macro environment, lack of regulation, trust in crypto and unclear regulatory stance might continue to put pressure on crypto.
Alex Dovbnya
Denys Serhiichuk
Arman Shirinyan