The long battle between Ripple and the SEC has now officially come to an end, and the discussion surrounding an XRP exchange-traded fund is fast gaining interest.
Pro-Ripple lawyer John E. Deaton summed up the mood with one line: "Wall Street is 'too greedy' to pass up this opportunity." This was in direct response to ETF Store President Nate Geraci suggesting that BlackRock might have been waiting for the case to conclude before launching an iShares XRP ETF.
This suggestion came at a time when approval odds were declining. Prediction market Polymarket saw its XRP ETF approval probability sink to 66%, its weakest level since January, after news emerged that SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw had voted against all 13 crypto ETF items on the July 29 meeting agenda.
However, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is not buying the pessimism. He says their in-house odds have not budged from 95%, pointing out that Crenshaw has a long track record of opposing anything crypto-related, including Bitcoin ETFs and the Ripple settlement itself.
In his view, her vote is predictable and, more importantly, powerless against a solid majority.
Domino effect for XRP ETF?
The settlement she objected to was ultimately rejected by the judge, prompting Ripple to withdraw its cross-appeal earlier this year. The SEC has now matched that move, as shown in fresh court documents finalizing the dismissal of both sides' appeals.
With the legal barriers gone, the door is wide open for major asset managers to expand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum products. The prospect of a new ETF market tied to one of the largest and most liquid altcoins may be too lucrative for Wall Street to ignore — precisely the point Deaton was making.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team