Bitcoin (BTC) May Drop to $30,200 Level If This Scenario Plays Out: Analyst

Crypto trader and analyst Ali Martinez, known to the crypto community on the X social media app simply as Ali, has taken to the X platform to share that despite Bitcoin finding stable support at the $36,400 level, BTC may fail to hold there and break downward.

The analyst believes that should Bitcoin break downward from there, it may reach the $34,300 and $30,200 levels, which are the next important demand zones for the world's flagship digital currency.

These levels, including the current $36,400 support, have major BTC demand buckets around them – the "UTXO Realized Price Distribution" (URPD) indicator readings are high here, indicating that a lot of investors, including financial institutions, have bought large amounts of BTC at these price levels.

Bitcoin ETF approval hope holds BTC at high so far

Bitcoin has managed to reach the current $36,714 level as the hopes of the cryptocurrency market that the SEC will approve at least one Bitcoin spot ETF filing this month continue to build up.

The "brief window" during which the SEC may approve Bitcoin ETFs is to close on Nov. 17, and if at least one of those filings by financial institutions, such as BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck or Ark Investments, get approved, this may become a pivotal point not only for the Bitcoin price but for the whole cryptocurrency market, many experts believe.

Currently, the SEC regulator has around a dozen BTC spot ETF filings on its desk to consider, and the majority of experts and market players are betting that the BlackRock filing is likely to be the first one to get approval this year.

BlackRock as also been preparing ground for launching an Ethereum ETF, and it has dismissed rumors about its plans to apply for an XRP-based exchange-traded fund approval.

Risks of SEC work disruption this year

BlackRock is the largest fund management company in the world, spearheaded by CEO Larry Fink, with a whopping $9.4 trillion worth of assets under management.

However, since the U.S. government at the moment is at high risk of temporarily shutting down due to political headwinds, the probability of the SEC issuing a Bitcoin ETF approval may decrease significantly.

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Bitcoin price turbulence

Last week, between Nov. 7 and Nov. 9, Bitcoin staged a massive pump, rising by more than 9% and adding nearly $1,200 in value. This is when BTC hit the $37,903 level. Since then, however, the digital gold has experienced a 5.66% fall followed by a series of rises and declines within the $37,400 range.

At the time of this writing, BTC is changing hands at $26,670 after a 1.13% price growth observed within the last few hours.