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The Bitcoin (BTC) price bounced back over $116,500 today, recording more than 3% daily gains after dipping to $112,000 earlier in the week. The rally came as Jerome Powell hinted that rate cuts might be coming if the job market gets weaker.
Now, markets think there iss a 90% chance of a cut this year. The macro spark pushed crypto into high gear, but if you look at the charts, you will see a darker signal: a potential death cross.
On the daily chart, BTC got back both the 23-day and 50-day moving averages in a single green candle. But now, those averages are coming together in a way that could turn into a bearish trend if prices cool down again.
The 200-day trendline, which is around $100,600, is the main support, and if the shorter lines under it cross it, it will be a classic death cross — a signal that euphoric spikes often lead to bigger pullbacks.
Bitcoin on thin ice
In just one hour, almost $240 million in shorts were liquidated as BTC soared, pushing total futures turnover to $107 billion, a 55% surge, according to CoinGlass. Options volume more than doubled past $8.4 billion, but open interest slipped 3%, showing plenty of players are focused on making a profit instead of taking risks.
When the Binance and OKX ratios are above 1.4, it shows that the market is heavily tilted toward the long side. This kind of imbalance can create a situation where there is a lot of potential profit if sentiment changes.
Ethereum surged 8% toward $4,600, adding to the risk-on mood. Even so, the chart setup around Bitcoin's moving averages is still the clearest signal: a looming death cross that could turn this green run into a hangover faster than the market expects.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team