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Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, closed below its 200-day moving average (MA), a trend line that's significant in determining the asset's longer-term direction.
This move has historically signaled further declines, with Bitcoin averaging a subsequent 20% drop since 2016, as pointed out by market observer Joe Carlasare.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,015.30 after dropping to an intraday low of $25,643, according to CoinGecko data.
A confluence of factors
The most recent plunge was initially attributed by many to a misleading social media post by Bitcoin Magazine. The post, which quickly garnered over 2.4 million views, alleged that Elon Musk's SpaceX offloaded all its Bitcoin holdings valued at $373 million.
Yet, placing the blame solely on the SpaceX misinformation might be an oversimplification. Analysis from CryptoQuant.com showed signs of an impending price decrease well before this news surfaced.
Fidelity's Timmer remains bearish
Additionally, Jurrien Timmer, a market analyst, noted that Bitcoin has been hovering near the $30,000 mark for some time, suggesting it may be trading ahead of its intrinsic value based on real rates and network growth metrics. The term premium for bonds, which is still negative, is particularly relevant in this context.
With these myriad factors in play, the trajectory of Bitcoin remains as unpredictable as ever, underscoring the need for investors to tread with caution.
Valeria Blokhina
