Prominent Bitcoin (BTC) mining entrepreneur Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of BTC.TOP and B.TOP mining firms, shared his forecast on the first phase of the next bullish rally in crypto. While the run might start in a few months, its scenario might be different to what we witnessed in previous cycles.
Optimistic and pessimistic forecasts by industry veteran
Mr. Jiang Zhuoer took to Twitter to share his estimations of the prospects of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in the next bullish rally. He attempts to compare the ongoing cycle with those of 2014 and 2018. As such, he publishes two scenarios for cryptocurrency bulls, an optimistic and a pessimistic one.
1/ I would like to discuss our current position in the Bitcoin market cycle.— Jiang Zhuoer BTC.TOP (@JiangZhuoer) January 9, 2023
Starting from the previous Bitcoin (BTC) all-time high (ATH) and ending with the next halving, #BTC crossed the bear market bottom in 2014 and 2018, respectively. pic.twitter.com/IAq4U7q0iJ
If the November 2022 decline triggered by the FTX drama was the ultimate bottom of this cycle, the four-year period remains valid for every major cycle in crypto. As such, the potential collapse of Digital Currency Group, which is being widely discussed in the media, is already priced in and will not affect the price significantly.
Then, while the new upsurge is almost imminent, the market can follow one of two scenarios. If the optimistic one plays out, the rally might start two months after the last phase of "sideways" moves.
The pessimistic scenario, meanwhile, opens the road to an eight-month painful "sideways" period. Thus, cryptocurrency capitalization might start its new rally in early Q4, 2023.
First Ethereum (ETH), then Bitcoin (BTC)
Also, Mr. Jiang Zhuoer is fascinated by the prospects of Ethereum (ETH) compared with Bitcoin (BTC). As this is the first time, Ethereum (ETH) meets with EIP-1559 activated and on a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus, Ethereum (ETH) is exposed to trivial inflation:
More specifically, looking at the data of Ethereum (ETH), the inflation rate was 3.59% when ETH was in Proof-of-Work (POW). Bitcoin's inflation rate is 1.72%. Even after the bear market, with the inactive coin burning, the ETH inflation rate is as low as 0.01%.
Besides that, Ethereum's (ETH) price decline during this bearish cycle is only 80% of that of the largest cryptocurrency, which is yet another indicator of Ether's maturity as an asset.
As such, Ethereum (ETH) will start rising earlier than Bitcoin (BTC); the first spike can be expected between March and May 2023, Mr. Jiang Zhuoer says.
As covered by U.Today previously, in March, 2022, Mr. Jiang Zhuoer criticised "permanent bulls" for their lack of common sense.