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Ethereum (ETH) Might Finally Surpass Bitcoin (BTC) by Market Cap, Analyst Displays Four Scenarios

Sat, 06/03/2023 - 16:22
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Vladislav Sopov
Crypto analyst Morgan 'Mo' Bennett shares his views on four possible scenarios of hypothetical 'flippening' in 2025-2026
Ethereum (ETH) Might Finally Surpass Bitcoin (BTC) by Market Cap, Analyst Displays Four Scenarios
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Independent cryptocurrency analyst shared the charts of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) "domination," i.e., the percentage of net crypto segment market cap. He indicated two trend lines that may display the timeline of "flippening" much-anticipated by the Ethereum (ETH) community.

Ethereum (ETH) might flip Bitcoin (BTC) in 2025-2026, here's how

Morgan Bennett tracked the dynamics of the share of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) market capitalization compared to the entire cryptocurrencies segment. Although he cannot call himself a "fan" of technical analysis, he is sure that two trends are obvious: Bitcoin's (BTC) domination shrinks while the Ethereum (ETH) one grows.

Should both trend lines be valid, the "flippening" might happen in the next two or three years. On the chart by Bennett, it takes place in Q4, 2026. Thanks to the growing size of the altcoin market, both cryptocurrencies will be responsible for 23-24% by the moment of "flippening."

Ethereum (ETH) can surpass Bitcoin (BTC) "gently," "gradually," "suddenly" or both cryptocurrencies can fall victim to the "Digital Gold" narrative disappearing.

By press time, Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency, is in charge of over 46.2% of cryptocurrency market capitalization, while Ethereum's (ETH) share exceeds 19.5%. The third largest cryptocurrency, the U.S. Dollar Tether (USDT) stablecoin, totals 7.36% of net crypto market cap.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), two largest cryptocurrencies, were at the closest point to "flippening" six years ago, in mid-June 2017. Bitcoin (BTC) was in charge of 37% of the market, and Ethereum's (ETH) capitalization comprised 32%.

By contrast, in September 2019, Bitcoin's (BTC) market cap was 10x larger than that of Ethereum (ETH) since the latter was much more affected by the Crypto Winter of 2018-2020.

"Flippening could happen, but line is ridiculous," crypto veteran Chris Blec says

The followers of Bennett agreed with his calculations. However, some of them stressed that they are tired of "flippening" narratives that have been discussed here and there since the launch of Ethereum (ETH) in June 2015.

Prominent DeFi analyst and influencer Chris Blec, author of the Blec Report project, says that in general, Bitcoin (BTC) has all chances of being surpassed by Ethereum (ETH), but the accuracy of the aforementioned model should not be overestimated:

I don't disagree that the flippening could happen but that line is really ridiculous.. you just completely ignored all of the data points between 2016 and today

Bennett agreed with this point of view, but added that it is impossible to find a function that does not predict the flippening even if Ethereum's (ETH) dominance at the start was considered 0.

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About the author

Blockchain Analyst & Writer with scientific background. 6+ years in IT-analytics, 3+ years in blockchain.

Worked in independent analysis as well as in start-ups (, Monoreto, Attic Lab etc.)