The cryptocurrency community is buzzing with anticipation following new data from the popular prediction market, Polymarket, which shows a 55% chance of a Cardano (ADA) ETF being approved before the end of 2025.
This marks a significant 45% jump in odds compared to the beginning of the year.
Cardano ETF approval hopes boost network activity
This massive jump is an indication of increasing confidence among traders that regulators could approve a spot ETF for ADA just as they've done for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Should an ADA ETF be approved, it will open the doors for more institutional investment in the coin, which will drive up mainstream adoption and the price of Cardano.
The optimism around an approval for this ETF has remained the same from January till date. This has been the period Polymarket started tracking this odd. Analysts believe there are multiple factors causing this positivity.
Many regulatory bodies have now become receptive to investment products related to cryptocurrencies, especially after the success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs which were approved in the U.S. last year.
In addition, institutional investors may be attracted to Cardano due to its strong fundamentals, such as a proof-of-stake blockchain and active developments in its ecosystem. Meanwhile, some analysts have warned investors not to raise their expectations too high.
They argue that there are various factors that could still influence the regulators' decision before they approve this ETF.
Cardano transactions jump to almost 50,000
Data from Cardano explorer, Cardanoscan, shows that transaction volume on the Cardano blockchain has ranged from 10,000 to 50,000 from April 30 to May 12. This transaction count stayed between 30,000 and 35,000 between April 30 and May 6, 2025. This is an indication that the activity level within the ecosystem was consistent.
A noticeable shift started on May 7. According to the chart, the number of daily transactions rose to more than 35,000, surpassing 40,000 many times. The last data from the chart, which is for May 15, 2025, showed that the number of transactions was close to 50,000.
Transaction counts are indications of an asset's real-world use apart from speculative trading. Even though these figures are nowhere near its all-time highs, the 10,000–50,000 transactions every day are proof of the network's reliable throughput.
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin