Bitcoin Underperforming Previous Cycles Despite Rallying to $100K

According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin's return on investment (ROI) is so far 26.94% below the average ROI recorded during the previous two cycles (8.18x) that took place during the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 periods.

The previous bull market significantly outpaced this one with 10.47x returns. 

The firm has also noted that the current Bitcoin cycle is showing significantly reduced volatility compared to the two previous cycles. 

The cycle, which started in late 2022, has had an average drawdown of just 7.68%. Overall, the average correction is as much as 16.24%. 

The biggest correction that took place during this cycle was a relatively modest 26%. For comparison, Bitcoin lost as much as 71% during its 2011 bull market. 

This shows that the leading cryptocurrency has turned into a more stable asset following wider institutional adoption.  

The leading cryptocurrency is currently trading at $98,894, according to CoinGecko data. 

The cryptocurrency is up 133% on a year-to-date basis after previously surpassing $100,000 for the first time. 

The cryptocurrency has so far spent just one full day in the six-digit range. For comparison, it has spent a total of 1,762 days in the $10,000-$100,000 range. 

So far, most analysts expect that the current rally will extend well into 2025. Bernstein predicted that the price of Bitcoin could surge as high as $200,000 in 2024. The same price target was recently shared by Bitwise.

Some other experts have even more ambitious price targets for Bitcoin in 2025. For instance, Fundstrat's Tom Lee has predicted that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $250,000.