Bitcoin (BTC) could be on course to repeat bearish market trends from the 2018/2019 bear cycle market analyst Aaron Arnold told Kitco News in an interview.
The Altcoin Daily co-founder and commentator said that the price action of BTC is already reminiscent of the 2018/19 bear market. BTC is consolidating at around $19,000 to $20,000 just like it was consolidating near $6,000 at the time.
#Bitcoin is still "highly correlated" with #stocks and could repeat the 2018 bear #market, crash another 50% at least says @AltcoinDailyio— Kitco NEWS (@KitcoNewsNOW) October 18, 2022
Watch full interview w/ @davidlin_TV: https://t.co/OeIeP2Laj9 👈#KitcoNEWS coverage of @dxbontheblock is sponsored by @CoinPaymentsNET pic.twitter.com/sPjAh3rC5U
This is where the danger lies for the present market, he noted. While opinions in 2018 were that BTC had found a bottom, the price eventually dropped 50%. The risk of this repeating in the current market exists. He said:
Back then, from my memory, a lot of people thought $6,000 was the bottom. Today, a lot of people think that we don't have much further to go, and usually everybody thinks the same thing.
Arnold stated that BTC could fall to support at $11,000 to $14,000, or even worse drop to $6,000. One reason for this is because of the abundance of bearish indicators in the market. These include high inflation, dollar devaluation, sovereign debt crisis, OPEC oil production cuts, as well as the fact that BTC is still highly correlated with stocks.
Could the current BTC bear market be different?
In contrast to Arnold's perspective, other analysts have argued that the current bear market has characteristics that set it apart from previous downturns. In a report, trading firm Cumberland shared that the current bear market cycle is remarkable for massive trading volumes that have persisted.
With daily trading volumes of over $50 billion, the firm asserted that the market is still healthy despite the price crash. According to a U.Today report, the benchmark crypto could also be showing signs of decoupling for the stock market.