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VanEck, a global asset manager, presents projected long-term Solana valuations in a new report titled "VanEck's Base, Bear, Bull Case: Solana Valuation by 2030," coauthored by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush.
According to VanEck, its 2030 Solana valuation scenarios anticipate a SOL price ranging from a bearish $9.81 to a bullish $3,211.28, based on varying market shares and revenue estimates across key sectors.
In its 2030 baseline, VanEck's standardized valuation framework projects Solana to achieve a token valuation of $335. The estimate, it stated, is based on projecting a terminal valuation multiple on Solana's SOL tokens based on an anticipated real rate of return.
VanEck stated that depending upon the scenario, it is assumed that a certain portion of businesses and their income will be produced from blockchain activities or will use blockchain in some capacity to locate clients, create new goods, decrease expenses, or simplify back-end business tasks.
Given this, VanEck envisions Solana becoming the first blockchain to support applications with over 100 million users.
Despite its potential, VanEck says Solana has a lower chance of hosting the majority of the world's crypto transactions by 2030 than Ethereum.
While Solana's network and execution engine offers higher throughput and unlock greater possibilities, the majority of crypto users and developers have yet to adopt it.
Solana currently has a significantly lower share of crypto total value (TVL) of $408 million out of $46 billion, as well as a similarly low percentage of daily active users (184,000 out of 5.5 million).
As a result, the base scenario forecasts Solana adoption at around 30%, a significant increase over today's data but significantly lower than Ethereum's base case of 70%.
VanEck's price prediction of $11,800 for Ethereum was based on the ETH network obtaining a 70% market share of value transmitted over open-source blockchains. If Solana can avoid Ethereum's event horizon and reach Ethereum-like dominance, the bull case forecasts $51.8 billion in revenue and a price target of $3,211 in 2030.
SOL was trading at $31.97 at the time of writing; thus, a price increase to $3,211 would represent a 10,600% increase for Solana in the coming years.
Vladislav Sopov
Gamza Khanzadaev
Denys Serhiichuk
