Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has entered a very painful stage of its cyclic performance. Should history repeat itself, we need to brace ourselves for many more months of choppy price action. Also, Bitcoin (BTC) bulls should not be surprised by "black swans" coming.
"Dull price action": Analyst on Bitcoin (BTC) performance
Based on previous performance, Bitcoin (BTC) might be due for either "sideways action," a drop or "black swans," says a pseudonymous technical analyst who goes by @CryptoCon_ on X, formerly known as Twitter. He shared these estimations with his 33,400 followers yesterday, Aug. 25, 2023.
#Bitcoin is 7 months and 22 days from its next projected halving date, April 16th 2024.— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) August 25, 2023
It's interesting to see how previous cycles performed at a similar time...
Bitcoin is wildly cyclical, and during this period price typically enters… pic.twitter.com/1F5reRdHXz
Previously, Bitcoin (BTC) went through five-six months of pale performance before the end of each cycle. At the same time, in 2019-2020, those "choppy months" were accompanied by a "black swan" event of a global panic-driven recession.
As covered by U.Today previously, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to $3,250 in early morning hours on March 13, 2020. This event will be remembered as the "Black Friday in Crypto."
As such, many analysts ask Bitcoin (BTC) bulls to stay super cautious in the last months of the cycle. Researcher @CryptoCon_ stresses that Bitcoin (BTC) failed to stay above the critical "safe" support level:
Being below healthy supports like the 20 Week Exponential Moving Average, it's probably good to expect some dull price action for some time
Once the fourth cycle ends, Bitcoin (BTC) might start rallying to new highs. The ultimate goal for the first cryptocurrency indicated by cryptocurrency investing veterans from Pantera Capital is $148,000.
More pressure on BTC expected in Q4, 2023
This time, the end of the cycle might be even more painful for bulls, says Hal Press, founder and CEO of North Rock Digital cryptocurrency asset management fund.
Press recalled that the U.S. government should be selling 33,000 Bitcoins (BTC) by the end of the year, which is equivalent to $850 million. Also, major movements of funds are expected to happen when owners prepare for the tax season:
Lot's of funds will likely be redeemed into year end along with tax loss selling
As such, should U.S. regulators fail to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF launch by the end of 2023, bulls should be ready to face "grim going into year end," Press admits.
Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan only sees a "limited upside" remaining before the panic-driven sell-off ends.