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A top-tier analyst has indicated that Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high of $60,000. This bullish sentiment comes after a thorough consideration of Bitcoin's price performance, adjusted for the M1 money supply – the sum of physical currency and quickly accessible deposits in the economy.
Understanding M1 is crucial. It is a monetary aggregate that includes physical currency and coins, demand deposits, traveler's checks, other checkable deposits and negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts. M1 is a measure of the money supply that includes the most liquid portions of the money supply because it contains currency and assets that can be quickly converted to cash.
Bitcoin has been ranging since 2018... if you adjust for the M1 money in circulation
— Murad (@MustStopMurad) June 26, 2023
2018 6K level
2019 6K level
2021 30K level
2022 30K level
They're actually all the "same" level.
The good news is that it looks like we're retaking this level, despite M1 shrinking for a year pic.twitter.com/v79rv9IZO5
Bitcoin's price has seemingly been in a range since 2018, with critical levels appearing at $6,000 in 2018 and 2019, and $30,000 in 2021 and 2022. While these price points may appear disparate at first glance, they can be perceived as essentially the same level when adjusted for changes in the M1 money supply. This adjustment provides a more accurate picture of Bitcoin's real value over time.
Over the past four years, the M1 supply has seen significant growth due to various factors such as government stimulus programs and central bank actions. When we adjust Bitcoin's price against this increased supply of money, the perceived price levels become relative. The $6,000 level in 2018 and 2019 becomes equivalent to the $30,000 level seen in 2021 and 2022.
The exciting news is that Bitcoin looks to be reclaiming this adjusted level despite the M1 money supply having been contracting for a year. This indicates that Bitcoin is strengthening in real terms and could be setting the stage for another bullish run.
If Bitcoin's value continues to grow against the M1 supply, the $60,000 peak may be within sight again. This would align with the views of several analysts who believe that the fundamentals for Bitcoin are still robust, and the coin is well-positioned for a strong comeback.
Gamza Khanzadaev
Alex Dovbnya
