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Open interest for Solana has increased dramatically, indicating a major change in the attitude of the market. But it is clear that most of this open interest is made up of short positions, indicating that traders are primarily placing bets on further drops in the price of SOL.
There is a strange quiet on the market despite this bearish positioning, which begs the question of what these circumstances might mean. At the end of the trading day, market participants hold all of the outstanding futures contracts, which is known as open interest. It suggests that more money is entering the market when open interest is high and rising, which could reinforce the current trend, whether bullish or bearish.
As for Solana, the market is heavily skewed toward short positions, as evidenced by the rising open interest during a steep price decline. The price of Solana drops sharply on the first chart, matching the rise in open interest. According to this correlation, traders are probably anticipating that the downtrend will continue and are actively initiating new short positions as the price declines.
Godfrey BenjaminThe lack of strong follow-through, which is typical in these kinds of situations, suggests that these short sellers may be cautious and may be holding off on dropping the price until they have more confirmation. The second chart, which displays the open interest and aggregated volume together, indicates that although OI is increasing, the trading volume is not rising.
This difference may indicate that although new positions are being taken, there may not be sufficient overall conviction in these trades to cause notable price movement in the near future.
There may be a short squeeze — where shorts are compelled to cover their positions, pushing the price up sharply — if the bulk of open interest is still short and the price consolidates or even begins to rise. However, if selling pressure picks up and volume rises, it might validate the bearish sentiment and cause Solana's price to drop even further.
Alex Dovbnya
Godfrey Benjamin
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov