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XRP's bounce back up to $3 is grabbing people's attention, but the technical analysis doesn't paint a full-on bull picture. If you look at the daily chart, you'll see that $3 lines up pretty closely with the Bollinger Bands' middle line.
So far, the price has not been able to break through it. That rejection makes the return to $3 less of a breakthrough and more of a stopping point, keeping the bias tilted bearish despite the rebound.
Over the past few weeks, XRP's price has been fluctuating around this range, and each time it reaches $3, it hits a wall instead of moving forward.
The midline, which is now at around $3.09, has become the pivot point that determines whether the asset can recover and become bullish again or if it will stay capped under pressure. So far, XRP has not been able to close above that line on a daily chart.
The wider setup basically makes the same point. On the weekly chart, XRP's rally earlier this summer stretched the bands to their widest in years, but the retracement has brought it right back into the middle zone. The mid-band here is around $2.61, so the recent moves are basically a struggle to hold the upper half of the range.
If $3 keeps failing, the path toward the lower side — $2.60 and possibly even deeper into the $2.00 area — remains open.
"It's trap"
That's why $3 print jobs should be handled with care. It's a pretty powerful number, psychologically speaking, but the reality on the ground is that there's still a lot of resistance compared to support.
If there is a real change in the structure, XRP's price would have to break and stay above the $3.35 upper band, which would open up room for growth. Until that happens, the Bollinger framework shows that $3 is not a victory, it's a trap. The sentiment may look better than the actual chart dynamics allow.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team