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Bitcoin price history leaves little debate — September has almost never been the right month to make optimistic investment decisions with the main cryptocurrency. Across more than a decade of data, this exact month stands out as the weakest point on the calendar, carrying an average return of -5.58% and a median of -4.43%.
Red runs across cycles: bull markets, bear markets, sideways years; September has usually been the setback. Funnily enough, August has been too, so there is a bearish sequence deployed into the price history of Bitcoin.
This is what makes the current BTC price chart setup harder to ignore. Extending a pullback that began when July’s climb above $120,000 broke down, August is already showing a loss worth 3.9%, and rolling into a month that historically delivers more pain strips another point for those who are bullish.
How stubborn the pattern is really is evidently shown by the track record . In 2022, September closed down 3.1%. In 2021, the drop was 7.3%. Back in 2018, it was -5.7%, and in 2014 the damage was -19%.
The handful of green prints — +5.9% in 2016, +2.5% in 2015 — look more like an exception than a trend. Even in the biggest years for Bitcoin, like 2017 or 2020, September still ended in red.
Bottom line
What keeps repeating is the way this month works like a reset. Liquidity shrinks, rare summer rallies fade and external pressure weighs heavier. That mix has made September one of the worst-timed entry points for BTC, proven by price history.
The contrast comes in October, which has averaged +15.2% and often flipped the script fast. But before that upside, September has kept its role as the month to avoid.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team