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XRP is a week from flipping the calendar to September, and according to price history by CryptoRank, this is where the fall setup usually forms. September itself isn’t a layup though as the average return for the month is +14.7%, but the median is -0.32%, which means a typical September is either flat or a bit red.
However, the month has thrown big winners before — +73% in 2018 and +46.9% in 2016 — and those exceptions are what keeps the average in the green.
Where the real statistical heavy hitters are clustered is Q4, not September. Across XRP's price history, the final quarter of the year averages +147.3% with a median ~+0.7% for the cryptocurrency.
That split tells Q4 is dominated by a few monster runs rather than steady gains. Examples: 2013 (+150.6%), 2014 (+426.1%), 2017 (+1,064%), 2024 (+240.1%). On the other side, there were soft finishes like 2018 (-39.1%), 2019 (-26.5%), 2020 (-8.0%), 2021 (-12.7%), 2022 (-29.2%). In short: Q4 is where the extremes live.
XRP in 2025
This year’s path sets the stage cleanly. 2025 monthly: Jan. +46%, Feb. -29.3%, March -2.52%, April +4.98%, May -0.80%, June +2.95%, July +35%, Aug. -0.09% (to date). That puts Q3-to-date near +34.9%, a familiar pre-fall pattern where summer chop gives way to a higher-beta finish.
Check out the monthly chart — XRP is testing the $3 area again. In previous cycles, sustained prints near this zone came right before multi-month legs higher. And then there's the seasonality: A pretty flat median September that often leads into a bigger Q4, where the average is boosted by a few really big runs.
This doesn't necessarily mean that 2025 will have the same kind of blowouts, but the timing does make sense. With one week left in August, the market is entering that time of year that has historically been XRP's biggest advance season — not because every fall is green, but because when the big years happen, they tend to happen in Q4.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team