Prominent crypto analyst Adam Cochran has recently voiced his disagreement with Balaji Srinivasan's bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach a staggering $1 million within 90 days. Cochran's skepticism is rooted in historical data and the behavior of alternative assets during times of crisis.
Cochran highlights that the Bitcoin rally from 2020 to 2022 saw a 547% increase, while the 2017 rally, which occurred at much lower prices, only resulted in a 1,105% gain. In light of these figures, Srinivasan's prediction of a significant leap to $1 million within such a short time frame seems far-fetched.
3/25— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) March 18, 2023
The bet here, is that within 90 days, Bitcoin will reach a price of $1M USD.
Or around a 3600% gain within the next 90 days.
To put that in perspective, the rally from 2020 - 2022 was only 547% and the 2017 rally at far lower prices was only 1105% gain. pic.twitter.com/7OZZHXNgYX
Cochran also points out that alternative wealth assets, such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals, typically perform well during economic risks rather than system risks. When the economy is struggling or cash flow is limited, alternative assets can be a viable option. However, when the entire system is at risk of collapsing, the value of these assets becomes irrelevant.
The analyst draws on the example of the stock market crash on Feb. 20, 2020, when the world was grappling with the onset of the pandemic. During this period, Bitcoin's price plummeted by more than 60% from its peak. Even if one were to argue that Bitcoin is now more widely accepted as an alternative to gold, Cochran demonstrates that gold's performance during the pandemic crash was not particularly impressive either.
Gold, often considered a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, only saw an 8.3% increase in value during the pandemic. Comparing the downside volatility of Bitcoin (-70%) to the upside volatility of gold (+8.3%) during the same period, Cochran suggests that it is unrealistic to expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million within 90 days based on Srinivasan's rationale.