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Matrixport, a prominent cryptocurrency financial services platform, has made a bold prediction that the Bitcoin (BTC) price is poised to reach $50,000 in January. The forecast is fueled by a confluence of factors, including the potential approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), growing institutional interest, supply shortages and historical trends.
This optimistic prediction from Matrixport comes on the heels of a remarkable surge in Bitcoin's price. As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $45,849, reflecting an impressive 7.56% increase in the last 24 hours alone. This surge propels Bitcoin to a 21-month high, adding substantial weight to Matrixport's forecast of the cryptocurrency reaching an even more ambitious target of $50,000 in January 2024.
Potential catalysts for Bitcoin
In a comprehensive report released by Matrixport, the company suggests that a significant catalyst for the anticipated surge is the potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs. According to the report, an announcement could come sooner than expected, possibly today or tomorrow, ahead of the anticipated approval window on Jan. 8, 9 or 10.
Matrixport believes that, if approved, this would not trigger a typical "sell-the-news" reaction but rather result in a substantial price increase for the leading cryptocurrency. The report highlights that spot ETF approval would solidify Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class for institutional portfolios, potentially serving as collateral for acquiring other assets.
Matrixport emphasizes a potential upside risk, indicating that a substantial amount of fiat money, estimated between $5-10 billion, might struggle to find sufficient Bitcoin on exchanges for ETF exposure. This scarcity is attributed to the movement of Bitcoin off exchanges following the 2022 bankruptcies and FTX crypto exchange incidents.
The report highlights the impact of Bitcoin mining companies limiting supply around the upcoming halving cycles, expected in April 2024. This limitation could contribute to a supply shortage, potentially leading to a scenario where buyers are eager, but sellers resist selling at prevailing price levels.
Drawing parallels with historical data, Matrixport notes that Bitcoin tends to rally strongly during halving cycles, coinciding with the U.S. election cycle. The average return during the 2012, 2016 and 2020 election years was an impressive +192%, suggesting the possibility of Bitcoin reaching the $125,000 target set by Matrixport in July 2023.
Overall, Matrixport's analysis paints a bullish picture of Bitcoin's immediate future, with the potential for significant price movements driven by key catalysts such as ETF approvals, institutional interest and supply dynamics. Traders and investors will be closely watching developments in the coming weeks as Bitcoin aims to breach the $50,000 mark.
Alex Dovbnya
Vladislav Sopov
Dan Burgin