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This Bitcoin Indicator Gives $22,400 as Most Important Level To Hold, Here's Why

Sat, 08/13/2022 - 14:34
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Tomiwabold Olajide
Bitcoin attempting to form another base
This Bitcoin Indicator Gives $22,400 as Most Important Level To Hold, Here's Why
Cover image via stock.adobe.com

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According to Glassnode, the Bitcoin URPD indicator shows that over 530,000 BTC, or 3.18% of supply, changed hands in the $22,400 price range. This range is currently the largest volume node, demonstrating investor interest around the key on-chain cost basis of the realized price.

The $22,400 level is also quite important since it is close to the 200 WMA ($22,877), which has historically been an indicator for a bottoming formation, according to Glassnode.

At its current price of $24,458, Bitcoin is presently trading above both the realized price, which is $21,773, and the Long Term Holder Realized Price (LTH Realized Price), which is $22,722. This represents the average value of the BTC coin supply as of the most recent on-chain transaction.

With BTC prices above the realized price, the short-term outlook has improved with participants willing to gain exposure to the lead cryptocurrency. The overall miner balance has decreased by about 4,700 BTC over the past two weeks. This shows that during the recent price surge, aggregate miners were taking some exit liquidity, perhaps to strengthen their balance sheets and manage risk.

The fact that the Bitcoin hash ribbons are still inverted indicates that there is still stress in the mining sector. However, the faster 30 DMA is beginning to stabilize, signaling that the financial situation of miners may be improving. Miner stress reached its climax in June as BTC prices fell below $20,000. Glassnode observes that the distribution of miners to exchanges has significantly decreased recently, indicating that while industry stress is still present, the "worst may well be behind."

Bitcoin "forming" another base

According to Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer, "Bitcoin is attempting to form another base, and so far it looks like a good one."

Bitcoin's price is seeing a relief rally, bringing it closer to the $25,000 mark, but it remains weighed down by longer-term macro indicators, suggesting that more time may be needed to establish a solid base.

Some simple moving averages have shown relevance for Bitcoin price action over time, according to Glassnode. The 200 WMA (weekly moving average), which is currently at $22,877, has historically served as a sign of the beginning of a bottom. The pivotal transitional barrier between macro bull and macro bear market momentum continues to be the 200 DMA (daily moving average) at roughly $33,000.

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About the author

Tomiwabold is a cryptocurrency analyst and an experienced technical analyst. He pays close attention to cryptocurrency research, conducting comprehensive price analysis and exchanging predictions of estimated market trends. Tomiwabold earned his degree at the University of Lagos.