Can Ripple Still Lose? Top Lawyer Estimates Odds of SEC's Victory

The legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has seen numerous twists and turns over the last few months. Attorney Jeremy Hogan recently weighed in on the ongoing dispute, giving the SEC a mere 2.367% chance of victory — playfully likening it to the odds of the Jets securing a Super Bowl win.

This conclusion stems from Hogan's in-depth analysis, which dissects the potential trajectories the case might take.

Why SEC's path to victory appears convoluted

Hogan's analysis has dissected a winding and complex path the SEC would need to navigate for a decisive win against Ripple.

Firstly, should the SEC opt for an appeal next year, and should the appellate court back them in 2025, it will not spell the end of the matter. The reason lies in the phrasing of the Judge's initial order, which would require the appellate court to reroute the case back to the trial judge for more detailed judicial evaluations.

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Further complicating the SEC's journey, even if the appellate court sides with them concerning programmatic sales, the issue would still return to the trial court for additional scrutiny. Hogan has stressed that following these renewed determinations at the trial court, an ensuing appeal would be necessary — and only after traversing this legal labyrinth could the SEC emerge victorious. The catch? Ripple could then potentially appeal to the Supreme Court.

Beyond these procedural challenges, the SEC must resist settling, succeed in their initial appeal (which Hogan gives only a 14% likelihood), persevere through subsequent hearings and finally triumph in yet another appeal. This does not even factor in potential external game-changers, like an Act of Congress, a shift in the political regime, or other unforeseen developments.

SEC's looming appeal

In the wake of the SEC's unexpected decision to drop charges against Ripple's Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen, XRP's price soared by over 8%, prompting a celebratory frenzy within the XRP community.

However, legal commentators caution that the SEC's strategy may be aimed at hastening the appeal process.

By voluntarily dismissing the charges, the SEC could potentially fast-track their challenge against Ripple, rather than idling until the trial's slated conclusion next spring.