As the Ripple lawsuit nears its ultimate end, legal experts in the crypto community are issuing their take on a possible outcome in the case.
Earlier in the week, former SEC attorney Marc Fagel predicted the Ripple lawsuit would resolve in days. The bold forecast provoked a reaction from the XRP community, which sought to know the reason for Fagel's deduction.
I agree with you Marc. Some of the matter goes to trial. Neither party will win entirely at SJ. https://t.co/hSr8WF4eWw— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) June 17, 2023
Fagel stated the reason, saying his only point of reference is the recent unsealing order, which suggested that the court had already determined what the ruling would be. On June 13, after a lengthy back and forth between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Hinman documents were finally unsealed and made publicly available.
After Fagel revealed this, a Twitter user asked if the unsealing of the documents ahead of a decision might be a sign that all of it might not go to trial. The Twitter user asked if he thinks the unsealing might not be for disclosure, and it leans toward a partial summary judgment.
The former SEC attorney revealed he does not have any guesses on this. He rather thinks that the unsealing of materials, if relevant at all, will only come out at trial rather than at summary judgment. To him, this might suggest that some of the materials are headed for trial, and he adds that anything beyond what he stated is speculation.
His response drew the attention of Bill Morgan, a lawyer and XRP enthusiast, who said he agrees with Fagel's opinion and stated that some of the matters at hand may go to trial. Morgan adds that "neither party will win entirely at summary judgment."
Earlier predictions on outcome
In December last year, when the summary judgment filings in the lawsuit were about to be fully briefed, John Deaton presented three outcome scenarios and their implications.
First, the judge fully agrees with the SEC. Second, Ripple wins outright, and the judge criticizes the SEC for pursuing its implausible theory of tokens being securities.
Third, a scenario where Judge Torres splits the proverbial baby and rules that Ripple, at some point, "offered" unregistered security. But XRP itself is not a security, nor are secondary market sales independent of Ripple.
Deaton stated that regardless of the outcome, the Ripple case is "ground zero" and will set a significant precedent.