The upcoming inflation data from the U.S. has always been a crucial factor on the cryptocurrency market, as it greatly affected the sentiment of retail investors in general. According to JPMorgan, CPI inflation below 6.9% will cause a rally on tradfi markets, which will certainly have a positive effect on crypto.
According to the market consensus, the most likely outcome for YoY inflation today is 7.2%, which is far above the aforementioned 6.9%. However, historical analysis shows that market consensus has almost never been correct, and the financial regulator often makes unexpected moves that either push the market upward or downward.
JP MORGAN HAS SHARED 6 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS HERE ARE ALL OF THEM.
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) December 12, 2022
THE MOST LIKELY AND EXPECTED OUTCOME IS Y/Y CPI COMING IN BETWEEN 7.2% AND 7.4% pic.twitter.com/speetTM55h
Prior to the data release, investors have been pushing the soft landing narrative as a series of rate hikes pushed both traditional and cryptocurrency markets to their multi-month lows as investors have been actively derisking their portfolios and moving funds toward stable investment solutions.
In addition to the strong bullish outcome, JPMorgan covered possible scenarios in which markets would plunge further down. At a 7.8% reading, the index might lose more than 4.5% of its value, causing a local catastrophe on markets. The cryptocurrency market would react accordingly, with most assets losing more than 5%. Luckily, the probability of such a high reading is only at 5%.
The most likely outcome is 7.2%-7.4%, which will lead to a modest rally on the market and should have a positive impact on the digital assets market. But it most certainly will not cause a rally as the majority of market participants had already priced it in.
At press time, Bitcoin and the crypto market in general remain calm, with the average volatility on the market today in the 3%-4% range.
Alex Dovbnya
Denys Serhiichuk