⭐ Features

Analysis of Past Bitcoin Boom/Bust Cycles Sheds Light on Bitcoin Price Prospects

  • David Dinkins
    ⭐ Features

    Data suggests the current downtrend in Bitcoin’s price could be nearing an end, but there are also reasons to be skeptical.

Analysis of Past Bitcoin Boom/Bust Cycles Sheds Light on Bitcoin Price Prospects
Cover image via u.today

Though the Bitcoin market is presently in turmoil, with ups and downs that resemble a yo-yo, since the December peak of nearly $20,000, there’s clearly been a significant downtrend. Mainstream media keeps saying the bubble has popped, with many outlets predicting lows of less than $3,000. But it’s possible Bitcoin’s past boom-and-bust cycles might tell us something about the downtrend we’re presently in, and how long it could last.

Redditor DamonAndTheSea helpfully composed a list of Bitcoin’s bull/bear cycles and calculated the length of time before the downtrend on each cycle was broken; his data can be easily verified on any Bitcoin charting site. Excepting the crash following the November 2013 boom, the downtrend following each Bitcoin bubble lasted on average 89 days and saw an average decline from peak price of 62%.

The current decline has gone on for 93 days and at the early-February low of $5,800, the market had retraced 70% of its high. According to this data, if we go by historical averages, Bitcoin’s downtrend should be nearing an end.

Mt. Gox

The data for the period following the November 2013 bubble is skewed because of the collapse of Mt. Gox, the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time. Hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins were stolen, laundered through BTC-e, and sold on the open market. This depressed prices for years - likely far longer than would have otherwise been the case. Mt. Gox likely skews the data significantly.

Nonetheless, if include the bear market that followed the late-2013 boom, with its 600-day downtrend, the averages shift somewhat. In that case, the average length of the downtrend becomes 217 days and an average decline of 68%.

Different this time?

By these numbers, there’s good reason to hope that Bitcoin’s bubble has in fact bust - and that the market can soon start trending upward again. But that’s not necessarily the case. With the limited data available - only four boom/bust cycles on record - it’s impossible to extract any statistically significant results.

Moreover, a number of things are different about 2017’s bubble:

Wall Street - With big banks and institutions now involved in the Bitcoin markets, they could keep the market depressed for awhile if they wanted. These investors have extremely deep pockets and can push the market around, should they choose. It would be expensive, and risky, but could be done.

High Volume - Previous bubbles have only involved a few thousand or tens of thousands of people pumping up the price on relatively low volume (by today’s standards). Even accounting for so-called “fake” volume, the crypto-market involved much more money, many more people and a great deal more mainstream media coverage than past bubbles. More people invested more money, meaning that as the bubble deflates, more people get burned. It could be awhile before your average Main Street investor trusts Bitcoin again.

Regulatory Attention - This goes along with the last point; because the bubble was so large and affected so many investors, it’s called greater regulatory scrutiny down on cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen how global regulators will act, as some are calling for restraint while others are going for the jugular.

Altcoin Boom - Previous crypto bubbles have been completely dominated by Bitcoin. This is the first bubble cycle that significantly involved altcoins, and it did so in a big way. Many altcoins saw their prices rise 150 times their January 2017 price. Ripple even pegged a 400x gain year-over-year. More people became involved by buying speculative ICO tokens or “cheap” altcoins that aren’t necessarily good long-term investments. As the altcoin sector inevitably contracts in the face of a bust, and many projects die, ordinary investors are going to find themselves burned even worse, and will be that much more reluctant to participate in any future price recoveries.

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About the author

David Dinkins is a freelance writer who holds a Master of Arts in history from Louisiana Tech University and has extensive teaching experience both at LSU – Shreveport and University of Phoenix. He got involved with cryptocurrency in early 2014 working as part of the Dash Core Team and have served in the role of writer/editor (mostly editor) during that time. He has edited a huge number of documents for the Core Team, including the Evolution whitepaper, the PrivateSend whitepaper, and many of Evan Duffield’s communications with the Dash Community.

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📰 News

Ripple's XRP Is in for ‘Explosive Growth’, Prominent Venture Investor Tim Draper Says

  • Yuri Molchan
    📰 News

    A Bitcoin bull and investment guru Tim Draper predicts the calm before the storm for the XRP price, as “to call Ripple developers actions wrong is impossible”

Ripple's XRP Is in for ‘Explosive Growth’, Prominent Venture Investor Tim Draper Says
Cover image via en.wikipedia.org

Disclaimer: The opinion expressed here is not investment advice – it is provided for informational purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of U.Today. Every investment and all trading involves risk, so you should always perform your own research prior to making decisions. We do not recommend investing money you cannot afford to lose.

When asking a question about when XRP is going to hit its quickest high profits in the quora.com forum, a user gets a reply from Tim Draper himself, who says that the XRP price is about to experience an ‘explosive growth’.

Tim Draper is pumping XRP

Tim Draper, a prominent venture investor and a Bitcoin bull, seems to be excited by the current Ripple expansion. Judging by his words, he is predicting the XRP to soar in the short term, calling it the calm before the storm or ‘explosive growth’, putting it a different way.

Tim Draper says:

“Looking at the three-time growth of Bitcoin over the past 5 months, one would expect a similar result from XRP.”

XRP should have already grown beyond $0.6 or even $0.9 by now, says the crypto investor, when talking about the results of recent Ripple’s expansions and the partnerships the crypto unicorn has initiated lately.

“The company is actively developing, expanding the sphere of influence, enlisting the support of large financial institutions and constantly improving the technology of transfers.”

Finally, he states:

“In addition, Ripple is owned by SBI, a large corporation with companies such as R3. Everything indicates that the current situation, only the calm before the storm, in our case, before the explosive growth.”


Ripple Opens New Office in the Heart of Washington, DC, to Educate US Lawmakers

Ripple Opens New Office in the Heart of Washington, DC, to Educate US Lawmakers

Ripple expands to Washington, D.C.

Previously, U.Today reported that the crypto giant has decided to expand its presence to Washington, D.C., to be closer to regulators, as per the CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and educate them on crypto and the blockchain.

He stated to Forbes:

“We’re focused on maintaining a dialogue with Washington regulators and policymakers and being a resource to the Hill allows us to be easily accessible at all times.”

Apart from extending its arms to Washington, Ripple has joined the Blockchain Association.


What is your bet on the price moves XRP is going to take in the near future? Share your view in the comments section below!

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About the author

Yuri is a journalist interested in technology and technical innovations. He has been in crypto since 2017. Believes that blockchain and cryptocurrencies have a potential to transform the world in the future. ‘Hodls’ cryptocurrencies. Has written for several crypto media. Currently is a news writer at U.Today.

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