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On the market, XRP is in an uncomfortable but important position. The asset is obviously under pressure in terms of price. The daily chart displays XRP trading below its short-, mid- and long-term moving averages and grinding lower inside a descending channel. Every relief bounce has been sold before it reaches the $2.30-$2.45 resistance band. Momentum has cooled, and the RSI is trapped in the low-40s range. Technically speaking, this still appears to be a corrective phase, as opposed to a trend reversal.
XRP's changing fundamentals
However, price by itself does not currently tell the whole story. The more intriguing signal is coming from XRP’s payment volume, a fundamental metric that shows real network usage rather than conjecture. The volume of XRP payments between accounts has repeatedly surged into the billions over the past month, with recent peaks coming close to 1.7 billion in a single day. Payment volume growth has historically tended to come before price growth rather than after it.
Additionally, there is a distinct pattern of behavior that is worth observing. Spikes in XRP payment volume typically happen during the week, not on the weekends. This is significant because it is in line with cycles of institutional activity rather than retail speculation.
Fundamentals shifting
A familiar setup is produced by this divergence between usage strength and price weakness. Prior to repricing fundamentals, markets frequently compress, particularly in situations where liquidity is limited and sentiment is erratic. The gap eventually closes if payment volume keeps growing while price is suppressed, and it rarely does so gradually.
Sellers may intervene if there is a clear break below the $1.90-$2.00 range, which could lead to another rapid leg down. However, downward moves increasingly appear to be absorption rather than distribution, as long as network activity keeps trending higher and institutional-linked flows continue to appear throughout the week.
The next step depends on alignment. XRP does not require much to start moving aggressively once the growth in payment volume is matched by increased liquidity and risk appetite. Right now, steady growth in payment volume is the metric to keep an eye on rather than RSI or trendlines. Price catching up will not depend on if, but rather when, if that continues to pick up speed.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team