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The next six weeks might be crucial for Bitcoin, the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, according to legendary trader Peter Brandt.
In a recent tweet, Brandt shared his view on the Bitcoin cycle in respect to the halving event, which occurs nearly every four years and reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created by 50%.
Brandt stated that a tradable top could occur for Bitcoin within the next six or so weeks: "According to how I view the cycles in Bitcoin — low to high with the halving marking the midpoint (+/- one to two weeks) — a tradable top could occur within the next six or so weeks." This statement implies that the next six weeks may present the last leg of a strong rally for the Bitcoin price before a potential correction.
Having tumbled to a low of $112,000 on Aug. 2, Bitcoin has returned to trade above $117,000, for now retaking the range it had been in for most of July.
Bitcoin was recently trading at $117,656, up 0.89% in the last 24 hours and up 3.6% weekly. Bitcoin’s latest record high was hit on July 14 as it pushed above $123,000.
Bitcoin cycle dead?
Bitcoin has typically traded in a four-year price cycle centered around the halving event.
Per this cycle, Bitcoin would surge in the months following the halving event, eventually reaching a record high. Then Bitcoin would decline by nearly 70% to 80% from this peak leading to the start of a period of lull in crypto prices or "crypto winter." Alternative cryptocurrencies would also follow a similar trend. Bitcoin would then consolidate for a while, and as the next halving approaches, its price would typically rise. The cycle then repeats.
However, that cycle, which has frequently followed a predictable pattern, appears to be breaking or disappearing entirely. Several factors, including Bitcoin ETFs, investor shift and positive regulatory outlook, have caused changes to the cycle.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the four-year cycle might be over, but for it to officially be dead, Bitcoin must perform well in 2026, which he expects to happen.
Dan Burgin
Vladislav Sopov
U.Today Editorial Team